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Title: Sensitivity to Energy Technology Costs: A Multi-model comparison analysis

Abstract

In the present paper we use the output of multiple expert elicitation surveys on the future cost of key low-carbon technologies and use it as input of three Integrated Assessment models, GCAM, MARKAL_US and WITCH. By means of a large set of simulations we aim to assess the implications of these subjective distributions of technological costs over key model outputs. We are able to detect what sources of technology uncertainty are more influential, how this differs across models, and whether and how results are affected by the time horizon, the metric considered or the stringency of the climate policy. In unconstrained emission scenarios, within the range of future technology performances considered in the present analysis, the cost of nuclear energy is shown to dominate all others in affecting future emissions. Climate-constrained scenarios, stress the relevance, in addition to that of nuclear energy, of biofuels, as they represent the main source of decarbonization of the transportation sector and bioenergy, since the latter can be coupled with CCS to produce negative emissions.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1208709
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-107392
KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Energy Policy, 80:244-263
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Energy Policy, 80:244-263
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
climate change; integrated assessment; uncertainty; Sensitivity analysis; Integrated Assessment Models; Expert elicitation; Technology cost

Citation Formats

Bosetti, Valentina, Marangoni, Giacomo, Borgonovo, Emanuele, Anadon, Laura Diaz, Barron, Robert W., McJeon, Haewon C., Politis, Savvas, and Friley, Paul. Sensitivity to Energy Technology Costs: A Multi-model comparison analysis. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.012.
Bosetti, Valentina, Marangoni, Giacomo, Borgonovo, Emanuele, Anadon, Laura Diaz, Barron, Robert W., McJeon, Haewon C., Politis, Savvas, & Friley, Paul. Sensitivity to Energy Technology Costs: A Multi-model comparison analysis. United States. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.012.
Bosetti, Valentina, Marangoni, Giacomo, Borgonovo, Emanuele, Anadon, Laura Diaz, Barron, Robert W., McJeon, Haewon C., Politis, Savvas, and Friley, Paul. Fri . "Sensitivity to Energy Technology Costs: A Multi-model comparison analysis". United States. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.012.
@article{osti_1208709,
title = {Sensitivity to Energy Technology Costs: A Multi-model comparison analysis},
author = {Bosetti, Valentina and Marangoni, Giacomo and Borgonovo, Emanuele and Anadon, Laura Diaz and Barron, Robert W. and McJeon, Haewon C. and Politis, Savvas and Friley, Paul},
abstractNote = {In the present paper we use the output of multiple expert elicitation surveys on the future cost of key low-carbon technologies and use it as input of three Integrated Assessment models, GCAM, MARKAL_US and WITCH. By means of a large set of simulations we aim to assess the implications of these subjective distributions of technological costs over key model outputs. We are able to detect what sources of technology uncertainty are more influential, how this differs across models, and whether and how results are affected by the time horizon, the metric considered or the stringency of the climate policy. In unconstrained emission scenarios, within the range of future technology performances considered in the present analysis, the cost of nuclear energy is shown to dominate all others in affecting future emissions. Climate-constrained scenarios, stress the relevance, in addition to that of nuclear energy, of biofuels, as they represent the main source of decarbonization of the transportation sector and bioenergy, since the latter can be coupled with CCS to produce negative emissions.},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.012},
journal = {Energy Policy, 80:244-263},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {5}
}