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Title: Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

Abstract

The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially needed immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Nordita, Stockholm (Sweden); Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  3. Nordita, Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1193717
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Sustainability (Basel)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2071-1050
Publisher:
MDPI
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; sustainable economic development; energy consumption; developing world

Citation Formats

Balatsky, Alexander V., Balatsky, Galina I., and Borysov, Stanislav S. Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.3390/su7033430.
Balatsky, Alexander V., Balatsky, Galina I., & Borysov, Stanislav S. Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption. United States. https://doi.org/10.3390/su7033430
Balatsky, Alexander V., Balatsky, Galina I., and Borysov, Stanislav S. 2015. "Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption". United States. https://doi.org/10.3390/su7033430. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1193717.
@article{osti_1193717,
title = {Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption},
author = {Balatsky, Alexander V. and Balatsky, Galina I. and Borysov, Stanislav S.},
abstractNote = {The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially needed immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.},
doi = {10.3390/su7033430},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1193717}, journal = {Sustainability (Basel)},
issn = {2071-1050},
number = 3,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Mar 20 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Fri Mar 20 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 23 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: Estimated economic and demographic characteristics by country for 2013. Total population (a); annual GDP growth (%) (b); GDP purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita (current international $) (c); and energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per capita (d). Data and figures are taken from the World Bank website.

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Works referenced in this record:

Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies
journal, September 2007


Global Inequality in Energy Consumption from 1980 to 2010
journal, December 2013


Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship
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Are international technology gaps growing or shrinking in the age of globalization?
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A Sustainable Energy Scenario for the United States: Year 2050
journal, November 2010


Limitations of Nuclear Power as a Sustainable Energy Source
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The Biodiesel of Microalgae as a Solution for Diesel Demand in Iran
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The Influence of Socio-Demographic Factors on Financial Sustainability of Public Services: A Comparative Analysis in Regional Governments and Local Governments
journal, October 2019


Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.