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Title: Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

Abstract

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1159019
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-99925
TE1101000
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Book
Resource Relation:
Related Information: Renewable Energy Integration: Practical Management of Variability, Uncertainty & Flexibility in Power Grids , 159-171
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
wind generation, solar generation, Energy managment system

Citation Formats

Makarov, Yuri V., Etingov, Pavel V., and Ma, Jian. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center. United States: N. p., 2014. Web.
Makarov, Yuri V., Etingov, Pavel V., & Ma, Jian. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center. United States.
Makarov, Yuri V., Etingov, Pavel V., and Ma, Jian. Wed . "Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center". United States. doi:.
@article{osti_1159019,
title = {Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center},
author = {Makarov, Yuri V. and Etingov, Pavel V. and Ma, Jian},
abstractNote = {Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jul 09 00:00:00 EDT 2014},
month = {Wed Jul 09 00:00:00 EDT 2014}
}

Book:
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