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Title: Bayesian Model Development for Analysis of Open Source Information to Support the Assessment of Nuclear Programs

Abstract

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has spent several years researching, developing, and validating large Bayesian network models to support integration of open source data sets for nuclear proliferation research. Our current work focuses on generating a set of interrelated models for multi-source assessment of nuclear programs, as opposed to a single comprehensive model. By using this approach, we can break down the models to cover logical sub-problems that can utilize different expertise and data sources. This approach allows researchers to utilize the models individually or in combination to detect and characterize a nuclear program and identify data gaps. The models operate at various levels of granularity, covering a combination of state-level assessments with more detailed models of site or facility characteristics. This paper will describe the current open source-driven, nuclear nonproliferation models under development, the pros and cons of the analytical approach, and areas for additional research.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1157005
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-96554
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Proceedings of the 54th Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management (INMM 2013) , July 20-24, 2013, Atlanta, Georgia
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Bayesian network model, nonproliferation

Citation Formats

Gastelum, Zoe N., Whitney, Paul D., and White, Amanda M. Bayesian Model Development for Analysis of Open Source Information to Support the Assessment of Nuclear Programs. United States: N. p., 2013. Web.
Gastelum, Zoe N., Whitney, Paul D., & White, Amanda M. Bayesian Model Development for Analysis of Open Source Information to Support the Assessment of Nuclear Programs. United States.
Gastelum, Zoe N., Whitney, Paul D., and White, Amanda M. Mon . "Bayesian Model Development for Analysis of Open Source Information to Support the Assessment of Nuclear Programs". United States.
@article{osti_1157005,
title = {Bayesian Model Development for Analysis of Open Source Information to Support the Assessment of Nuclear Programs},
author = {Gastelum, Zoe N. and Whitney, Paul D. and White, Amanda M.},
abstractNote = {Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has spent several years researching, developing, and validating large Bayesian network models to support integration of open source data sets for nuclear proliferation research. Our current work focuses on generating a set of interrelated models for multi-source assessment of nuclear programs, as opposed to a single comprehensive model. By using this approach, we can break down the models to cover logical sub-problems that can utilize different expertise and data sources. This approach allows researchers to utilize the models individually or in combination to detect and characterize a nuclear program and identify data gaps. The models operate at various levels of granularity, covering a combination of state-level assessments with more detailed models of site or facility characteristics. This paper will describe the current open source-driven, nuclear nonproliferation models under development, the pros and cons of the analytical approach, and areas for additional research.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1157005}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2013},
month = {7}
}

Conference:
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