skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Implications of a PTC Extension on U.S. Wind Deployment

Abstract

This analysis explores the potential effects of wind production tax credit expiration and various extension scenarios on future wind deployment with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a model of the U.S. electricity sector. The analysis does not estimate the potential implications on government tax revenue associated with the PTC. Key findings include: Under a scenario in which the PTC is not extended and all other policies remain unchanged, wind capacity additions are expected to be between 3 and 5 GW per year from 2013-2020; PTC extension options that ramp-down from the current level to zero-credit by year-end 2022 appear to be insufficient to support deployment at the recent historical average; Extending the PTC at its historical level may provide the best opportunity to support deployment consistent with recent levels across a range of potential market conditions; it therefore may also provide the best opportunity to sustain wind power installation and manufacturing sector at current levels.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Wind and Water Power Technologies Office, Wind Program
OSTI Identifier:
1128619
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-6A20-61663
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; WIND; PRODUCTION TAX CREDIT; PTC; REEDS; ANALYSIS; Wind Energy; Energy Analysis

Citation Formats

Lantz, E., Steinberg, D., Mendelsohn, M., Zinaman, O., James, T., Porro, G., Hand, M., Mai, T., Logan, J., Heeter, J., and Bird, L. Implications of a PTC Extension on U.S. Wind Deployment. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.2172/1128619.
Lantz, E., Steinberg, D., Mendelsohn, M., Zinaman, O., James, T., Porro, G., Hand, M., Mai, T., Logan, J., Heeter, J., & Bird, L. Implications of a PTC Extension on U.S. Wind Deployment. United States. doi:10.2172/1128619.
Lantz, E., Steinberg, D., Mendelsohn, M., Zinaman, O., James, T., Porro, G., Hand, M., Mai, T., Logan, J., Heeter, J., and Bird, L. Tue . "Implications of a PTC Extension on U.S. Wind Deployment". United States. doi:10.2172/1128619. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1128619.
@article{osti_1128619,
title = {Implications of a PTC Extension on U.S. Wind Deployment},
author = {Lantz, E. and Steinberg, D. and Mendelsohn, M. and Zinaman, O. and James, T. and Porro, G. and Hand, M. and Mai, T. and Logan, J. and Heeter, J. and Bird, L.},
abstractNote = {This analysis explores the potential effects of wind production tax credit expiration and various extension scenarios on future wind deployment with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a model of the U.S. electricity sector. The analysis does not estimate the potential implications on government tax revenue associated with the PTC. Key findings include: Under a scenario in which the PTC is not extended and all other policies remain unchanged, wind capacity additions are expected to be between 3 and 5 GW per year from 2013-2020; PTC extension options that ramp-down from the current level to zero-credit by year-end 2022 appear to be insufficient to support deployment at the recent historical average; Extending the PTC at its historical level may provide the best opportunity to support deployment consistent with recent levels across a range of potential market conditions; it therefore may also provide the best opportunity to sustain wind power installation and manufacturing sector at current levels.},
doi = {10.2172/1128619},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2014},
month = {Tue Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2014}
}

Technical Report:

Save / Share:
  • The basic sequence of functions and actions which will be or may be involved in the deployment of an offshore wind energy conversion system (WECS) installation is presented. Certain project configurations are posited in order to examine on a provisional basis the types of legal-institutional issues which might arise in the process of installation. These basic WECS configurations are: (1) fixed platform units within the three-mile limit; (2) artificial island or extended land fill within the three-mile limit; (3) fixed platform on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) beyond the three-mile limit; (4) artificial island on the OCS beyond the three-milemore » limit; (5) moored units on the OCS or out to the proposed 200-mile 'economic zone'; and (6) moored units beyond the outer limits of the OCS or beyond the proposed 'economic zone'.« less
  • Improvements to wind technologies have, in part, led to substantial deployment of U.S. wind power in recent years. The degree to which technology innovation will continue is highly uncertain adding to uncertainties in future wind deployment. We apply electric sector modeling to estimate the potential wind deployment opportunities across a range of technology advancement projections. The suite of projections considered span a wide range of possible cost and technology innovation trajectories, including those from a recent expert elicitation of wind energy experts, a projection based on the broader literature, and one reflecting estimates based on a U.S. DOE research initiative.more » In addition, we explore how these deployment pathways may impact the electricity system, electricity consumers, the environment, and the wind-related workforce. Overall, our analysis finds that wind technology innovation can have consequential implications for future wind power development throughout the United States, impact the broader electricity system, lower electric system and consumer costs, provide potential environmental benefits, and grow the U.S. wind workforce.« less
  • Report examining market development issues in the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry, including Federal policy infrastructure and incentives, state and local policy infrastructure, and business support,as they relate to the small wind industry.
  • The DOE Office of Energy Research chartered through the Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee (FESAC) a panel to "address the topic of U. S. participation in an ITER construction phase, assuming the ITER Parties decide to proceed with construction." (Attachment 1: DOE Charge, September 1996). Given that there is expected to be a transition period of three to five years between the conclusion of the Engineering Design Activities (EDA) and the possible construction start, the DOE Office of Energy Research expanded the charge to "include the U.S. role in an interim period between the EDA and construction." (Attachment 2: DOEmore » Expanded Charge, May 1997). This panel has heard presentations and received input from a wide cross-section of parties with an interest in the fusion program. The panel concluded it could best fulfill its responsibility under this charge by considering the fusion energy science and technology portion of the U.S. program in its entirety. Accordingly, the panel is making some recommendations for optimum use of the transition period considering the goals of the fusion program and budget pressures.« less
  • This final report for IEA Wind Task 23, Offshore Wind Energy Technology and Deployment, is made up of two separate reports, Subtask 1: Experience with Critical Deployment Issues and Subtask 2: Offshore Code Comparison Collaborative (OC3). Subtask 1 discusses ecological issues and regulation, electrical system integration, external conditions, and key conclusions for Subtask 1. Subtask 2 included here, is the larger of the two volumes and contains five chapters that cover background information and objectives of Subtask 2 and results from each of the four phases of the project.