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Title: Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting in the Washington-Oregon Region

Abstract

To economically and reliably balance electrical load and generation, electrical grid operators, also called Balancing Authorities (BA), need highly accurate electrical power generation forecasts in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. As wind power generation increases, there is a requirement to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts covering this short look-ahead period have depended heavily on short-term trends obtained from the actual power production and meteorological data of a wind generation facility. Additional data are often available from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and sometimes from off-site meteorological towers near wind generation facilities.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. AWS Truewind, LLC, Albany, NY (United States)
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1124982
Report Number(s):
LLNL-TR-458086
DOE Contract Number:  
W-7405-ENG-48
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY

Citation Formats

Zack, John, Natenberg, Eddie, Young, Steve, Knowe, Glenn Van, Waight, Ken, Manobianco, John, and Kamath, Chandrika. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting in the Washington-Oregon Region. United States: N. p., 2010. Web. doi:10.2172/1124982.
Zack, John, Natenberg, Eddie, Young, Steve, Knowe, Glenn Van, Waight, Ken, Manobianco, John, & Kamath, Chandrika. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting in the Washington-Oregon Region. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1124982
Zack, John, Natenberg, Eddie, Young, Steve, Knowe, Glenn Van, Waight, Ken, Manobianco, John, and Kamath, Chandrika. 2010. "Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting in the Washington-Oregon Region". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1124982. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1124982.
@article{osti_1124982,
title = {Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting in the Washington-Oregon Region},
author = {Zack, John and Natenberg, Eddie and Young, Steve and Knowe, Glenn Van and Waight, Ken and Manobianco, John and Kamath, Chandrika},
abstractNote = {To economically and reliably balance electrical load and generation, electrical grid operators, also called Balancing Authorities (BA), need highly accurate electrical power generation forecasts in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. As wind power generation increases, there is a requirement to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts covering this short look-ahead period have depended heavily on short-term trends obtained from the actual power production and meteorological data of a wind generation facility. Additional data are often available from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and sometimes from off-site meteorological towers near wind generation facilities.},
doi = {10.2172/1124982},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1124982}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2010},
month = {Fri Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2010}
}