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Title: Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes

Abstract

We consider the development of harmful algae blooms (HABs) in a lake with uncertain nutrients inflow. Two general frameworks, Fokker-Planck equation and the PDF methods, are developed to quantify the resultant concentration uncertainty of various algae groups, via deriving a deterministic equation of their joint probability density function (PDF). A computational example is examined to study the evolution of cyanobacteria (the blue-green algae) and the impacts of initial concentration and inflow-outflow ratio.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1092661
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-87675
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Modelling and Simulation in Fluid Dynamics in Porous Media: Workshop on Fluid Dynamics in Porous Media, September 12-14, 2011, Coimbra, Portugal. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, 28:99-108
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
uncetainty quantification, algae, Fokker-Planck, Langevin, PDF methods

Citation Formats

Wang, Peng, Tartakovsky, Daniel M., and Tartakovsky, Alexandre M. Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5055-9_6.
Wang, Peng, Tartakovsky, Daniel M., & Tartakovsky, Alexandre M. Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes. United States. doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5055-9_6.
Wang, Peng, Tartakovsky, Daniel M., and Tartakovsky, Alexandre M. 2013. "Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes". United States. doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5055-9_6.
@article{osti_1092661,
title = {Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes},
author = {Wang, Peng and Tartakovsky, Daniel M. and Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.},
abstractNote = {We consider the development of harmful algae blooms (HABs) in a lake with uncertain nutrients inflow. Two general frameworks, Fokker-Planck equation and the PDF methods, are developed to quantify the resultant concentration uncertainty of various algae groups, via deriving a deterministic equation of their joint probability density function (PDF). A computational example is examined to study the evolution of cyanobacteria (the blue-green algae) and the impacts of initial concentration and inflow-outflow ratio.},
doi = {10.1007/978-1-4614-5055-9_6},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = 2013,
month = 1
}

Conference:
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  • We consider a general framework to predict the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in a lake driven by uncertain parameters. To quantify the concentration uncertainty of those algae groups via their joint probabilistic density function (PDF), we explore an approach based on the Fokker-Planck equation. Our result is presented in an example where abundant nutrients contribute to the proliferation of cyanobacteria and other minor algae groups.
  • Abstract not provided.
  • In freshwater lakes, harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) produce toxins that impact human health. However, little is known about the chemical species present in lake spray aerosol (LSA) produced from wave-breaking in freshwater HABs. In this study, a laboratory LSA generator produced aerosols from freshwater samples collected from Lake Michigan and Lake Erie during HAB and non-bloom conditions. Particles were analyzed for size and chemical composition by single particle mass spectrometry, electron microscopy, and fluorescence microscopy, with three distinct types of LSA identified with varying levels of organic carbon and biological material associated with calcium salts. LSAmore » autofluorescence increases with blue-green algae concentration, showing that organic molecules of biological origin are incorporated in LSA from HABs. The number fraction of LSA with biological mass spectral markers also increases with particle diameter (greater than 0.5 μm), showing that HABs have size-dependent impacts on aerosol composition. The highest number fraction of LSA enriched in organic carbon were observed in particles less than 0.5 μm in diameter. Understanding the transfer of organic and biogenic material from freshwater to the atmosphere via LSA particles is crucial for determining health and climate effects due to HABs.« less
  • The flux of phytoplankton-derived organic carbon from the surface ocean to the deep sea and underlying sediments is a nonuniform process that significantly impacts biogeochemical cycles, atmospheric pCO[sub 2] / O[sub 2] and organic carbon enrichment in marine sediments. Some marine phytoplankton actively drive the sedimentation process by the formation of sticky transparent gels which facilitate aggregation, rapid sinking and efficient export flux. Here we present fossil evidence of unfragmented, low-diversity phytoplankton assemblages preserved as sedimentary laminations and as preserved aggregates that are attributable to a similar phytoplankton-driven sedimentary mechanism, here termed [open quotes]self-sedimentation[close quotes]. Heterogeneities in the texture and/ormore » composition of sediment supply are necessary for the production of laminatedhemipelagic sediments; the absence of hydraulic and biological reworking permits preservation of these sedimentary laminae. Distinctly-laminated core intervals are characterized by large compositional contrasts between adjacent laminae; many such high-bimodality couplets are attributable to self-sedimentation of phytoplankton blooms. Self-sedimentation propels the formation of some conspicuous hemipelagic sedimentary laminations and results in efficient carbon and opal flux to the sediments. These records suggest that phytoplankton-mediated changes in the efficiency of the biological carbon pump may govern many accumulations of organic-rich hydrocarbon source rock as well as many abrupt changes in atmospheric pCO[sub 2] and climate.« less
  • During the late spring of 1988 an extensive bloom of the toxic algae Chrysocromulina polylepis occurred in the Skagerrak region influencing most life in the upper 30 meter of the ocean. The algal front was advected northward with the Norwegian Coastal Current along the coast of southern Norway, where it became a severe threat to the Norwegian seafarming industry. An ad-hoc expert team was established to monitor and forecast the movement of the algae front. Remote sensing of sea surface temperature from the operational US NOAA satellites monitored the movement of the algal front, consistent with a warm ocean front.more » The lack of any optical remote sensing instrumentation was recognized as a major de-efficiency during this algal bloom. To prepare for similar events in the future Nansen Remote Sensing Center initiated a three week pilot study in the Oslofjord and Skagerrak region, during May 1989. The Canadian Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) was installed in the surveillance aircraft. Extensive in situ campaigns was also carried out by the Norwegian Institute for Water Research and Institute of Marine Research. A ship-borne non-imaging spectrometer was operated from the vessels participating in the field campaign. As a contribution from a joint campaign (EISAC '89) between the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Community and the European Space Agency (ESA) both the Canadian Fluorescence Line Imager (FLI) and the US 64-channel GER scanner was operated simultaneously at the NORSMAP 89 test site. Regions of different biological and physical conditions were covered during the pilot study and preliminary analysis are obtained from oil slicks, suspended matter from river, as well as minor algal bloom. The joint analysis of the data collected during the NORSMAP 89 campaign and conclussions will be presented, as well as suggestions for future utilization of airborne spectroscopy systems for operational monitoring of algal bloom and water pollution.« less