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Title: Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

Abstract

Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

Authors:
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Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1088102
Report Number(s):
SAND2012-10554
393343
DOE Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Backus, George A., Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick, Brown, Theresa Jean, Cai, Ximing, Conrad, Stephen Hamilton, Constantine, Paul G, Dalbey, Keith R., Debusschere, Bert J., Fields, Richard, Hart, David Blaine, Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna, Kerstein, Alan R., Levy, Michael, Lowry, Thomas Stephen, Malczynski, Leonard A., Najm, Habib N., Overfelt, James Robert, Parks, Mancel Jordan, Peplinski, William J., Safta, Cosmin, Sargsyan, Khachik, Stubblefield, William Anthony, Taylor, Mark A., Tidwell, Vincent Carroll, Trucano, Timothy Guy, and Villa, Daniel L. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.. United States: N. p., 2012. Web. doi:10.2172/1088102.
Backus, George A., Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick, Brown, Theresa Jean, Cai, Ximing, Conrad, Stephen Hamilton, Constantine, Paul G, Dalbey, Keith R., Debusschere, Bert J., Fields, Richard, Hart, David Blaine, Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna, Kerstein, Alan R., Levy, Michael, Lowry, Thomas Stephen, Malczynski, Leonard A., Najm, Habib N., Overfelt, James Robert, Parks, Mancel Jordan, Peplinski, William J., Safta, Cosmin, Sargsyan, Khachik, Stubblefield, William Anthony, Taylor, Mark A., Tidwell, Vincent Carroll, Trucano, Timothy Guy, & Villa, Daniel L. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.. United States. doi:10.2172/1088102.
Backus, George A., Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick, Brown, Theresa Jean, Cai, Ximing, Conrad, Stephen Hamilton, Constantine, Paul G, Dalbey, Keith R., Debusschere, Bert J., Fields, Richard, Hart, David Blaine, Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna, Kerstein, Alan R., Levy, Michael, Lowry, Thomas Stephen, Malczynski, Leonard A., Najm, Habib N., Overfelt, James Robert, Parks, Mancel Jordan, Peplinski, William J., Safta, Cosmin, Sargsyan, Khachik, Stubblefield, William Anthony, Taylor, Mark A., Tidwell, Vincent Carroll, Trucano, Timothy Guy, and Villa, Daniel L. 2012. "Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.". United States. doi:10.2172/1088102. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1088102.
@article{osti_1088102,
title = {Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.},
author = {Backus, George A. and Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick and Brown, Theresa Jean and Cai, Ximing and Conrad, Stephen Hamilton and Constantine, Paul G and Dalbey, Keith R. and Debusschere, Bert J. and Fields, Richard and Hart, David Blaine and Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna and Kerstein, Alan R. and Levy, Michael and Lowry, Thomas Stephen and Malczynski, Leonard A. and Najm, Habib N. and Overfelt, James Robert and Parks, Mancel Jordan and Peplinski, William J. and Safta, Cosmin and Sargsyan, Khachik and Stubblefield, William Anthony and Taylor, Mark A. and Tidwell, Vincent Carroll and Trucano, Timothy Guy and Villa, Daniel L.},
abstractNote = {Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.},
doi = {10.2172/1088102},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = 2012,
month =
}

Technical Report:

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  • The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine themore » latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security. Accurate and credible regional-scale climate models are still several years in the future, and those models are essential for estimating climate impacts around the globe. This study demonstrates how a scenario-based method may be used to give insights into climate impacts on a regional scale and possible mitigation. Because of our experience in the Arctic and widespread recognition of the Arctic's importance in the Earth climate system we chose the Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security. Sandia can make a swift and significant contribution by applying modeling and simulation tools with internal collaborations as well as with outside organizations. Because changes in the Arctic environment are happening so rapidly, a successful program will be one that can adapt very quickly to new information as it becomes available, and can provide decision makers with projections on the 1-5 year time scale over which the most disruptive, high-consequence changes are likely to occur. The greatest short-term impact would be to initiate exploratory simulations to discover new emergent and robust phenomena associated with one or more of the following changing systems: Arctic hydrological cycle, sea ice extent, ocean and atmospheric circulation, permafrost deterioration, carbon mobilization, Greenland ice sheet stability, and coastal erosion. Sandia can also contribute to new technology solutions for improved observations in the Arctic, which is currently a data-sparse region. Sensitivity analyses have the potential to identify thresholds which would enable the collaborative development of 'early warning' sensor systems to seek predicted phenomena that might be precursory to major, high-consequence changes. Much of this work will require improved regional climate models and advanced computing capabilities. Socio-economic modeling tools can help define human and national security consequences. Formal uncertainty quantification must be an integral part of any results that emerge from this work.« less
  • The National Security Agency (NSA) was authorized in 1983 to construct a semiconductor and circuit-board manufacturing plant at its Ft. Meade, Maryland, facility. This facility was to become known as the Special Process Laboratories (SPL) building. Phase I construction was managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers, Baltimore District (USACE/BD) and commenced in January 1986. Phase I construction provided the basic building and support systems, such as the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning system, the deionized-water and wastewater-treatment systems, and the high-purity-gas piping system. Phase II construction involved fitting the semiconductor manufacturing side of the building with manufacturing tools andmore » enhancing various aspects of the Phase I construction. Phase II construction was managed by NSA and commenced in April 1989. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) was contracted by USACE/BD midway through the Phase I construction period to provide quality-assured performance reviews of major facility systems in the SPL. Following completion of the Phase I construction, ANL continued its performance reviews under NSA sponsorship, focusing its attention on the enhancements to the various manufacturing support systems of interest. The purpose of this document is to provide a guide to the files that were generated by ANL during its term of technical assistance to USACE/BD and NSA and to explain the quality assurance program that was implemented when ANL conducted its performance reviews of the SPL building's systems. One set of the ANL project files is located at NSA, Ft. Meade, and two sets are at Argonne, Illinois. The ANL sets will be maintained until the year 2000, or for the 10-year estimated life of the project. 1 fig.« less
  • This study examines issues associated with using unprocessed grain stocks as a post-disaster food resource in national emergencies. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) data on locations at high risk for nuclear attack are combined with agricultural statistics from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify high-risk grain stocks and the proximity of people to stored stocks. Seasonal fluctuations in stocks between 1981 and 1985 indicate that days of nutrition from stored grains have ranged from a low of 600 days to a high of 1800 days. In 1984 about 40% of government-owned grain stocks were stored in high-riskmore » counties. If transportation services were lost in a national disaster, 57% of the US population would have access to only 8% of the unprocessed stored grains and 2% of government-owned stocks. A transportation model is used to calculate the ton-mile movements and transport costs of relocating grains to achieve 30 days and 60 days of nutrition in all States from stored grain stocks. The most feasible options for achieving national food security in the US include food relocation action plans and cooperative efforts with USDA to reduce risk to government-owned food stocks. 8 figs., 9 tabs.« less