skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

Abstract

Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year mean (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model providesmore » an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Mississippi State University (MSU)
  2. ORNL
  3. USDA Forest Service
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). National Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1054999
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
GIScience & Remote Sensing
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 49; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1548-1603
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
forest fire risk; land surface modeling

Citation Formats

Cooke, William H., Mostovoy, Georgy, Anantharaj, Valentine G, and Jolly, W. Matt. Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach. United States: N. p., 2012. Web. doi:10.2747/1548-1603.49.4.492.
Cooke, William H., Mostovoy, Georgy, Anantharaj, Valentine G, & Jolly, W. Matt. Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach. United States. https://doi.org/10.2747/1548-1603.49.4.492
Cooke, William H., Mostovoy, Georgy, Anantharaj, Valentine G, and Jolly, W. Matt. 2012. "Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach". United States. https://doi.org/10.2747/1548-1603.49.4.492.
@article{osti_1054999,
title = {Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach},
author = {Cooke, William H. and Mostovoy, Georgy and Anantharaj, Valentine G and Jolly, W. Matt},
abstractNote = {Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year mean (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.},
doi = {10.2747/1548-1603.49.4.492},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1054999}, journal = {GIScience & Remote Sensing},
issn = {1548-1603},
number = 4,
volume = 49,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2012},
month = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2012}
}

Works referenced in this record:

Modeling Ignition and Burning Rate of Large Woody Natural Fuels
journal, January 1995


Modeling of Fire Occurrence in the Boreal Forest Region of Canada
book, January 2000


Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather
journal, January 2009


Analysis of MODIS NDVI Time Series to Calculate Indicators of Mediterranean Forest Fire Susceptibility
journal, April 2011


Development of a Water Budget Management System for Fire Potential Mapping
journal, January 2009


Mapping probability of fire occurrence in San Jacinto Mountains, California, USA
journal, January 1993


A Method for Estimating Pan Evaporation for Inland and Coastal Regions of the Southeastern U.S.
journal, January 2008


Real‐time and retrospective forcing in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) project
journal, October 2003


Assessing ignition probability and moisture of extinction in a Mediterranean grass fuel
journal, January 2010


The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire
journal, June 2005


Spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in Mississippi, USA
journal, January 2010


A Review of Twentieth-Century Drought Indices Used in the United States
journal, August 2002


Near-real time mapping of Keetch-Byram drought index in the south-eastern United States
journal, January 2002


Modeling the land surface boundary in climate models as a composite of independent vegetation stands
journal, January 1992


An integrated high-resolution hydrometeorological modeling testbed using LIS and WRF
journal, February 2008


Validation of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) retrospective forcing over the southern Great Plains
journal, November 2003


The temporal variability of soil wetness and its impact on climate
journal, April 1990


Relationships between seasonal patterns of live fuel moisture and meteorological drought indices for Mediterranean shrubland species
journal, January 2007


Variation of Live and Dead Fine Fuel Moisture in Pinus radiata Plantations of the Australian-Capital-Territory
journal, January 1993


Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk
journal, January 2004

  • Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Brillinger, David R.; Burgan, Robert E.
  • International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 13, Issue 2
  • https://doi.org/10.1071/WF02061

Factors affecting sustained smouldering in organic soils from pocosin and pond pine woodland wetlands
journal, January 2007


Assessment of Vegetation Response to Drought in Nebraska Using Terra-MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
journal, July 2011