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Title: Distribution of Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems

Abstract

Wind power forecasting is one important tool in the integration of large amounts of renewable generation into the electricity system. Wind power forecasts from operational systems are not perfect, and thus, an understanding of the forecast error distributions can be important in system operations. In this work, we examine the errors from operational wind power forecasting systems, both for asingle wind plant and for an entire interconnection. The resulting error distributions are compared with the normal distribution and the distribution obtained from the persistence forecasting model at multiple timescales. A model distribution is fit to the operational system forecast errors and the potential impact on system operations highlighted through the generation of forecast confidenceintervals.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)
OSTI Identifier:
1046306
Report Number(s):
CP-5500-52568
TRN: US201216%%148
DOE Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Proceedings of the 10th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, 25-26 October 2011, Aarhus, Denmark
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY; DISTRIBUTION; ERRORS; FORECASTING; POWER SYSTEMS; PROCEEDINGS; WIND POWER; forecasting; distribution functions; power systems; wind power generation; stochastic systems

Citation Formats

Hodge, Bri Mathias, Ela, Erik, and Milligan, Michael. Distribution of Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems. United States: N. p., 2011. Web.
Hodge, Bri Mathias, Ela, Erik, & Milligan, Michael. Distribution of Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems. United States.
Hodge, Bri Mathias, Ela, Erik, and Milligan, Michael. 2011. "Distribution of Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1046306.
@article{osti_1046306,
title = {Distribution of Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems},
author = {Hodge, Bri Mathias and Ela, Erik and Milligan, Michael},
abstractNote = {Wind power forecasting is one important tool in the integration of large amounts of renewable generation into the electricity system. Wind power forecasts from operational systems are not perfect, and thus, an understanding of the forecast error distributions can be important in system operations. In this work, we examine the errors from operational wind power forecasting systems, both for asingle wind plant and for an entire interconnection. The resulting error distributions are compared with the normal distribution and the distribution obtained from the persistence forecasting model at multiple timescales. A model distribution is fit to the operational system forecast errors and the potential impact on system operations highlighted through the generation of forecast confidenceintervals.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1046306}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2011},
month = {Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2011}
}

Conference:
Other availability
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