Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models
Abstract
We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climatemodels (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1038586
- Report Number(s):
- DOE-UA-01172
Journal ID: doi:10.1029/2011GL050762; Paper 1
- DOE Contract Number:
- SC0001172
- Resource Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 39; Journal Issue: L05803
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Dominguez, F, Rivera, E, Lettenmaier, D P, and Castro1, and C. L. Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models. United States: N. p., 2012.
Web. doi:10.1029/2011GL050762.
Dominguez, F, Rivera, E, Lettenmaier, D P, & Castro1, and C. L. Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050762
Dominguez, F, Rivera, E, Lettenmaier, D P, and Castro1, and C. L. 2012.
"Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050762.
@article{osti_1038586,
title = {Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models},
author = {Dominguez, F and Rivera, E and Lettenmaier, D P and Castro1, and C. L.},
abstractNote = {We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climatemodels (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL050762},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1038586},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = L05803,
volume = 39,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2012},
month = {Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2012}
}