Straddling a paradigm shift
- Wisconsin Electric Power Co., Milwaukee, WI (United States)
Paul Meagher made a big mistake when he asked me about my speech. I asked him what I should talk about. He reiterated the title of the conference {open_quotes}Forecasting and DSM: Organizing for Success,{close_quotes} and said that whatever issues I wanted to cover were fine with him. As a result I will cover those areas I`ve been thinking about recently. It is hard for me to extract either Forecasting or Demand-Side Management out from the broader issues unwinding in the industry today. I`ve been around long enough to be involved in two major shifts in the industry. I call these paradigm shifts because as a planner I tend to build models in my mind to represent business or regulatory structure. Since a paradigm is defined as a clear model of something, I tend to talk about structural shifts in the industry as paradigm shifts. The first paradigm shift was brought about by the rapid escalation of energy prices in the 1970s. The second paradigm shift, brought about in part because of the first and because of growing concerns about the environment, ushered in the era of utility conservation and load management programs (components of a broader DSM concept - unfortunately today many people limit DSM to only these two pieces). The third paradigm shift is just starting, driven by partial deregulation and the subsequent increase in competition. My talk today will focus on issues related to the second paradigm, particularly in terms of utility planners getting more organized to deal with the synergies in the fields of forecasting, demand-side planning, and evaluation. I will also reflect on two new issues within the existing paradigm that influence these functional areas, namely beneficial electrification and integration of DSM into T&D planning. Finally I will talk about what I see coming as we go through another paradigm shift, particularly as it impacts forecasting and DSM.
- Research Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Pacific Consulting Services, Albany, CA (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 103249
- Report Number(s):
- EPRI-TR-105012; CONF-930969-; TRN: 95:006490-0002
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 9. electric utility forecasting symposium: forecasting and DSM - organizing for success, San Diego, CA (United States), 8-10 Sep 1993; Other Information: PBD: May 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of Ninth electric utility forecasting symposium: Proceedings. Forecasting and DSM -- Organizing for success; PB: 705 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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