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Title: RCP4.5: A Pathway for Stabilization of Radiative Forcing by 2100

Abstract

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m{sup -2} in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, including shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5 W m{sup -2}, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response tomore » stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1029073
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-75003
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; CLCHDX; KP1703030; TRN: US201122%%704
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 109; Journal Issue: 1-2; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CARBON; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATES; ECONOMICS; ELECTRICITY; ENERGY SYSTEMS; FORESTS; GREENHOUSE GASES; LAND USE; PRICES; SIMULATION; STABILIZATION; STORAGE; TARGETS; scenario; integrated assessment; GCAM

Citation Formats

Thomson, Allison M., Calvin, Katherine V., Smith, Steven J., Kyle, G. Page, Volke, April C., Patel, Pralit L., Delgado Arias, Sabrina, Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin, Wise, Marshall A., Clarke, Leon E., and Edmonds, James A.. RCP4.5: A Pathway for Stabilization of Radiative Forcing by 2100. United States: N. p., 2011. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4.
Thomson, Allison M., Calvin, Katherine V., Smith, Steven J., Kyle, G. Page, Volke, April C., Patel, Pralit L., Delgado Arias, Sabrina, Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin, Wise, Marshall A., Clarke, Leon E., & Edmonds, James A.. RCP4.5: A Pathway for Stabilization of Radiative Forcing by 2100. United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4.
Thomson, Allison M., Calvin, Katherine V., Smith, Steven J., Kyle, G. Page, Volke, April C., Patel, Pralit L., Delgado Arias, Sabrina, Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin, Wise, Marshall A., Clarke, Leon E., and Edmonds, James A.. Fri . "RCP4.5: A Pathway for Stabilization of Radiative Forcing by 2100". United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4.
@article{osti_1029073,
title = {RCP4.5: A Pathway for Stabilization of Radiative Forcing by 2100},
author = {Thomson, Allison M. and Calvin, Katherine V. and Smith, Steven J. and Kyle, G. Page and Volke, April C. and Patel, Pralit L. and Delgado Arias, Sabrina and Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin and Wise, Marshall A. and Clarke, Leon E. and Edmonds, James A.},
abstractNote = {Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m{sup -2} in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, including shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5 W m{sup -2}, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4},
journal = {Climatic Change},
issn = {0165-0009},
number = 1-2,
volume = 109,
place = {United States},
year = {2011},
month = {7}
}