Characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

Conference · Fri Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2010

OSTI ID:1028307

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M; Hansen, Clifford W

The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual structure of risk assessments for complex systems. The 2008 YM PA is based on the following three conceptual entities: a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. These entities and their use in the characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are described and illustrated with results from the 2008 YM PA.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000
• OSTI ID: 1028307
• Report Number(s): SAND2010-7174C; TRN: US1105438
• Resource Relation: Conference: Proposed for presentation at the SUM 2010 Conference held September 27-29, 2010 in Toulouse, France.
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES
MANAGEMENT
PERFORMANCE
PROBABILITY
RADIOACTIVE WASTES
RISK ASSESSMENT
YUCCA MOUNTAIN