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Title: SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATE’S PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Abstract

This paper presents approach for assessing a State’s propensity for nuclear weapons proliferation using social modeling. We supported this modeling by first reviewing primarily literature by social scientists on factors related to the propensity of a State to proliferation and by leveraging existing relevant data compiled by social scientists. We performed a number of validation tests on our model including one that incorporates use of benchmark data defining the proliferation status of countries in the years between 1945 and 2000. We exercise the BN model against a number of country cases representing different perceived levels of proliferation risk. We also describe how the BN model could be further refined to be a proliferation assessment tool for decision making.

Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1025088
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-80517
NN2001000; TRN: US201120%%272
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Institute of Nuclear Materials Mmanagement 52nd Annual Meeting, July 17-21 2011, Palm Desert CA
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION; BENCHMARKS; DECISION MAKING; PROLIFERATION; SIMULATION; VALIDATION; proliferation, proliferation assessment, bayesian, bayesian network, proliferation propensity

Citation Formats

Dalton, Angela C., Whitney, Paul D., Coles, Garill A., and Brothers, Alan J.. SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATE’S PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION. United States: N. p., 2011. Web.
Dalton, Angela C., Whitney, Paul D., Coles, Garill A., & Brothers, Alan J.. SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATE’S PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION. United States.
Dalton, Angela C., Whitney, Paul D., Coles, Garill A., and Brothers, Alan J.. Sun . "SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATE’S PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION". United States.
@article{osti_1025088,
title = {SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATE’S PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION},
author = {Dalton, Angela C. and Whitney, Paul D. and Coles, Garill A. and Brothers, Alan J.},
abstractNote = {This paper presents approach for assessing a State’s propensity for nuclear weapons proliferation using social modeling. We supported this modeling by first reviewing primarily literature by social scientists on factors related to the propensity of a State to proliferation and by leveraging existing relevant data compiled by social scientists. We performed a number of validation tests on our model including one that incorporates use of benchmark data defining the proliferation status of countries in the years between 1945 and 2000. We exercise the BN model against a number of country cases representing different perceived levels of proliferation risk. We also describe how the BN model could be further refined to be a proliferation assessment tool for decision making.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2011},
month = {7}
}

Conference:
Other availability
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