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Title: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Abstract

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates amore » mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide transport in formations overlying the repository, and complementary cumulative distribution functions used in comparisons with regulatory standards (i.e., 40 CFR 191, Subpart B).« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (US); Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (US)
Sponsoring Org.:
US Department of Energy (US)
OSTI Identifier:
1024
Report Number(s):
SAND98-0365
TRN: US0302884
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: 1 Sep 1998
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; ALPHA-BEARING WASTES; DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS; FLUID FLOW; NEW MEXICO; PERFORMANCE; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SENSITIVITY; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; TWO-PHASE FLOW; US EPA

Citation Formats

Bean, J.E., Berglund, J.W., Davis, F.J., Economy, K., Garner, J.W., Helton, J.C., Johnson, J.D., MacKinnon, R.J., Miller, J., O'Brien, D.G., Ramsey, J.L., Schreiber, J.D., Shinta, A., Smith, L.N., Stockman, C., Stoelzel, D.M., and Vaughn, P. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. United States: N. p., 1998. Web. doi:10.2172/1024.
Bean, J.E., Berglund, J.W., Davis, F.J., Economy, K., Garner, J.W., Helton, J.C., Johnson, J.D., MacKinnon, R.J., Miller, J., O'Brien, D.G., Ramsey, J.L., Schreiber, J.D., Shinta, A., Smith, L.N., Stockman, C., Stoelzel, D.M., & Vaughn, P. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. United States. doi:10.2172/1024.
Bean, J.E., Berglund, J.W., Davis, F.J., Economy, K., Garner, J.W., Helton, J.C., Johnson, J.D., MacKinnon, R.J., Miller, J., O'Brien, D.G., Ramsey, J.L., Schreiber, J.D., Shinta, A., Smith, L.N., Stockman, C., Stoelzel, D.M., and Vaughn, P. Tue . "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant". United States. doi:10.2172/1024. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1024.
@article{osti_1024,
title = {Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant},
author = {Bean, J.E. and Berglund, J.W. and Davis, F.J. and Economy, K. and Garner, J.W. and Helton, J.C. and Johnson, J.D. and MacKinnon, R.J. and Miller, J. and O'Brien, D.G. and Ramsey, J.L. and Schreiber, J.D. and Shinta, A. and Smith, L.N. and Stockman, C. and Stoelzel, D.M. and Vaughn, P.},
abstractNote = {The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates a mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide transport in formations overlying the repository, and complementary cumulative distribution functions used in comparisons with regulatory standards (i.e., 40 CFR 191, Subpart B).},
doi = {10.2172/1024},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {1998},
month = {9}
}