skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Review of cost estimates for reducing CO2 emissions. Final report, Task 9

Abstract

Since the ground breaking work of William Nordhaus in 1977, cost estimates for reducing CO{sub 2} emissions have been developed by numerous groups. The various studies have reported sometimes widely divergent cost estimates for reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. Some recent analyses have indicated that large reductions in CO{sub 2} emissions could be achieved at zero or negative costs (e.g. Rocky Mountain Institute 1989). In contrast, a recent study by Alan Manne of Stanford and Richard Richels of the Electric Power Research Institute (Manne-Richels 1989) concluded that in the US the total discounted costs of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 20 percent below the 1990 level could be as much as 3.6 trillion dollars over the period from 1990 to 2100. Costs of this order of magnitude would represent about 5 percent of US GNP. The purpose of this briefing paper is to summarize the different cost estimates for CO{sub 2} emission reduction and to identify the key issues and assumptions that underlie these cost estimates.

Publication Date:
Research Org.:
ICF Resources, Inc., Fairfax, VA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
10181336
Report Number(s):
DOE/FE/61679-T27
ON: DE93041334
DOE Contract Number:
AC01-88FE61679
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: Oct 1990
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT; CARBON DIOXIDE; AIR POLLUTION CONTROL; AIR POLLUTION ABATEMENT; SUPPLY AND DEMAND; PROGRESS REPORT; FOSSIL FUELS; RENEWABLE RESOURCES; 540220; 010900; CHEMICALS MONITORING AND TRANSPORT; ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS

Citation Formats

Not Available. Review of cost estimates for reducing CO2 emissions. Final report, Task 9. United States: N. p., 1990. Web. doi:10.2172/10181336.
Not Available. Review of cost estimates for reducing CO2 emissions. Final report, Task 9. United States. doi:10.2172/10181336.
Not Available. Mon . "Review of cost estimates for reducing CO2 emissions. Final report, Task 9". United States. doi:10.2172/10181336. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10181336.
@article{osti_10181336,
title = {Review of cost estimates for reducing CO2 emissions. Final report, Task 9},
author = {Not Available},
abstractNote = {Since the ground breaking work of William Nordhaus in 1977, cost estimates for reducing CO{sub 2} emissions have been developed by numerous groups. The various studies have reported sometimes widely divergent cost estimates for reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. Some recent analyses have indicated that large reductions in CO{sub 2} emissions could be achieved at zero or negative costs (e.g. Rocky Mountain Institute 1989). In contrast, a recent study by Alan Manne of Stanford and Richard Richels of the Electric Power Research Institute (Manne-Richels 1989) concluded that in the US the total discounted costs of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 20 percent below the 1990 level could be as much as 3.6 trillion dollars over the period from 1990 to 2100. Costs of this order of magnitude would represent about 5 percent of US GNP. The purpose of this briefing paper is to summarize the different cost estimates for CO{sub 2} emission reduction and to identify the key issues and assumptions that underlie these cost estimates.},
doi = {10.2172/10181336},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 1990},
month = {Mon Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 1990}
}

Technical Report:

Save / Share:
  • The cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) is a measure of the monetary value of resources expended to obtain reductions in emissions of air pollutants. The CER can lead to selection of the most effective sequence of pollution reduction options. Derived with different methodologies and technical assumptions, CER estimates for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) have varied widely among pervious studies. In one of several explanations of LCER differences, this report uses a consistent basis for fuel price to re-estimate CERs for AFVs in reduction of emissions of criteria pollutants, toxics, and greenhouse gases. The re-estimated CERs for a given fuel type have considerablemore » differences due to non-fuel costs and emissions reductions, but the CERs do provide an ordinal sense of cost-effectiveness. The category with CER less than $5,000 per ton includes compressed natural gas and ed Petroleum gas vehicles; and E85 flexible-fueled vehicles (with fuel mixture of 85 percent cellulose-derived ethanol in gasoline). The E85 system would be much less attractive if corn-derived ethanol were used. The CER for E85 (corn-derived) is higher with higher values placed on the reduction of gas emissions. CER estimates are relative to conventional vehicles fueled with Phase 1 California reformulated gasoline (RFG). The California Phase 2 RFG program will be implemented before significant market penetration by AFVs. CERs could be substantially greater if they are calculated incremental to the Phase 2 RFG program. Regression analysis suggests that different assumptions across studies can sometimes have predictable effects on the CER estimate of a particular AFV type. The relative differences in cost and emissions reduction assumptions can be large, and the effect of these differences on the CER estimate is often not predictable. Decomposition of CERs suggests that methodological differences can make large contributions to CER differences among studies.« less
  • The zinc reduction of silicon tetrachloride in a fluidized bed of seed particles to yield a granular product was studied along with several modifications of the thermal decomposition or hydrogen reduction of silicon tetraiodide. Although all contenders were believed to be capable of meeting the quality requirements of the LSA Project, it was concluded that only the zinc reduction of the chloride could be made economically feasible at a cost below $10/kg silicon (1975 dollars). Accordingly, subsequent effort was limited to evaluating that process. A miniplant, consisting of a 5-cm-diameter fluidized-bed reactor and associated equipment was used to study themore » deposition parameters, temperature, reactant composition, seed particle size, bed depth, reactant throughput, and methods of reactant introduction. It was confirmed that the permissible range of fluidized-bed temperature was limited at the lower end by zinc condensation (918 C) and at higher temperatures by rapidly decreasing conversion efficiency (by 0.1 percent per degree C from 72 percent (thermodynamic) at 927 for a stoichiometric mixture). Use of a graded bed temperature was shown to increase the conversion efficiency over that obtained in an isothermal bed. Other aspects of the process such as the condensation and fused-salt electrolysis of the ZnCl/sub 2/ by-product for recycle of zinc and chlorine were studied to provide information required for design of a 50 MT/year experimental facility, visualized as the next stage in the development. Projected silicon costs of $7.35 and $8.71 per kg (1975 dollars) for a 1000 MT/year facilitywere obtained, depending upon the number and size of the fluidized-bed reactors and ZnCl/sub 2/ electrolytic cells used. An energy payback time of 5.9 months was calculated for the product silicon.« less
  • The author discusses the issue of the cost of reducing CO2 emissions related to the energy sector and the implications for the structure of the energy sector in Colombia. While there have been a number of attempts to estimate the costs of CO2 reduction in various developed countries such as the United States, there appears to be a lack of similar studies for developing countries. The analysis is based on optimizations using a comprehensive mathematical programming model of Colombia's energy sector in conjunction with an econometric model of the sector. Section one outlines the empirical methods used to analyze themore » energy/environmental linkages in Colombia. Section two summarizes the simulated results.« less
  • Improved oil combustion technology, based upon optimization of oil atomizer and flame stabilizer design, has been developed for retrofit to oil-fired utility boilers. This technology is referred to as Reduced Emissions and Advanced Combustion Hardware, or REACH. Over the past several years, REACH has been widely applied to reduce particulate matter (PM) emissions and opacity, improve unit turndown, reduce excess air requirements, and solve a variety of boiler performance, reliability, and operating problems. Recent research and development have led to refinements in REACH technology that simultaneously reduce NOx and PM emissions. REACH hardware is now available for retrofit to oil-firedmore » utility and industrial boilers to cost-effectively control emissions and provide operational and performance benefits.« less
  • The report gives results of an evaluation of the effectiveness of combustion-type fuel oil additives to reduce emissions and increase efficiency in a 50-bhp (500 kW) commercial oil-fired packaged boiler. Most additive evaluation runs were made during continuous firing, constant-load operation of the boiler. Additives, both proprietary and pure compounds, containing alkaline-earth and transition metals in concentrations between 20 and 50 ppm were effective in reducing carbon particulate emissions by as much as 100 percent when firing residual oil. They also were effective in reducing emissions of smoke and polycyclic organic matter. No additive was found to be effective inmore » reducing either NOx or SOx. Certain of these additives used in residual oil permitted an increase in overall boiler efficiency by reducing stack gas loss, without increasing particulate emissions. This efficiency gain, about 2%, was achieved by: appropriate readjustment to permit boiler operation at lower excess air levels; and reducing the fouling of boiler heat-transfer surfaces. Both proprietary and pure compounds were found to be equally effective. Thus, if additives are used, cost savings can be maximized by using the less expensive pure compounds.« less