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Title: An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

Abstract

This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to an aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Laboratories
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1005385
Report Number(s):
SAND2003-3378J
Journal ID: ISSN 0037-5497; TRN: US201105%%262
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Proposed for publication in SIMULATION: Transaction of the Society International for Computer Simulation. Special issue on air traffic simulation.; Journal Volume: 80; Journal Issue: 1
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
42 ENGINEERING; 97 MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND COMPUTING; AIRCRAFT; FAILURE MODE ANALYSIS; RELIABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SAFETY; MONTE CARLO METHOD; O CODES; HUMAN FACTORS

Citation Formats

Dandini, Vincent John, Duran, Felicia Angelica, and Wyss, Gregory Dane. An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.. United States: N. p., 2003. Web.
Dandini, Vincent John, Duran, Felicia Angelica, & Wyss, Gregory Dane. An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.. United States.
Dandini, Vincent John, Duran, Felicia Angelica, and Wyss, Gregory Dane. Mon . "An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.". United States.
@article{osti_1005385,
title = {An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.},
author = {Dandini, Vincent John and Duran, Felicia Angelica and Wyss, Gregory Dane},
abstractNote = {This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to an aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.},
doi = {},
journal = {Proposed for publication in SIMULATION: Transaction of the Society International for Computer Simulation. Special issue on air traffic simulation.},
number = 1,
volume = 80,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2003},
month = {Mon Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2003}
}