skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Visualizing Diurnal Population Change in Urban Areas for Emergency Management

Abstract

There is an increasing need for a quick, simple method to represent diurnal population change in metropolitan areas for effective emergency management and risk analysis. Many geographic studies rely on decennial U.S. Census data that assume that urban populations are static in space and time. This has obvious limitations in the context of dynamic geographic problems. The U.S. Department of Transportation publishes population data at the transportation analysis zone level in fifteen-minute increments. This level of spatial and temporal detail allows for improved dynamic population modeling. This article presents a methodology for visualizing and analyzing diurnal population change for metropolitan areas based on this readily available data. Areal interpolation within a geographic information system is used to create twenty-four (one per hour) population surfaces for the larger metropolitan area of Salt Lake County, Utah. The resulting surfaces represent diurnal population change for an average workday and are easily combined to produce an animation that illustrates population dynamics throughout the day. A case study of using the method to visualize population distributions in an emergency management context is provided using two scenarios: a chemical release and a dirty bomb in Salt Lake County. This methodology can be used to address amore » wide variety of problems in emergency management.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [1]
  1. University of Utah
  2. ORNL
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Center for Computational Sciences
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1004954
DOE Contract Number:
DE-AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Professional Geographer, The; Journal Volume: 63; Journal Issue: 1
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE; 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE; EMERGENCY PLANS; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS; INTERPOLATION; MANAGEMENT; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SIMULATION; URBAN AREAS; URBAN POPULATIONS; US DOT

Citation Formats

Kobayashi, Tetsuo, Medina, Richard M, and Cova, Thomas. Visualizing Diurnal Population Change in Urban Areas for Emergency Management. United States: N. p., 2011. Web. doi:10.1080/00330124.2010.533565.
Kobayashi, Tetsuo, Medina, Richard M, & Cova, Thomas. Visualizing Diurnal Population Change in Urban Areas for Emergency Management. United States. doi:10.1080/00330124.2010.533565.
Kobayashi, Tetsuo, Medina, Richard M, and Cova, Thomas. 2011. "Visualizing Diurnal Population Change in Urban Areas for Emergency Management". United States. doi:10.1080/00330124.2010.533565.
@article{osti_1004954,
title = {Visualizing Diurnal Population Change in Urban Areas for Emergency Management},
author = {Kobayashi, Tetsuo and Medina, Richard M and Cova, Thomas},
abstractNote = {There is an increasing need for a quick, simple method to represent diurnal population change in metropolitan areas for effective emergency management and risk analysis. Many geographic studies rely on decennial U.S. Census data that assume that urban populations are static in space and time. This has obvious limitations in the context of dynamic geographic problems. The U.S. Department of Transportation publishes population data at the transportation analysis zone level in fifteen-minute increments. This level of spatial and temporal detail allows for improved dynamic population modeling. This article presents a methodology for visualizing and analyzing diurnal population change for metropolitan areas based on this readily available data. Areal interpolation within a geographic information system is used to create twenty-four (one per hour) population surfaces for the larger metropolitan area of Salt Lake County, Utah. The resulting surfaces represent diurnal population change for an average workday and are easily combined to produce an animation that illustrates population dynamics throughout the day. A case study of using the method to visualize population distributions in an emergency management context is provided using two scenarios: a chemical release and a dirty bomb in Salt Lake County. This methodology can be used to address a wide variety of problems in emergency management.},
doi = {10.1080/00330124.2010.533565},
journal = {Professional Geographer, The},
number = 1,
volume = 63,
place = {United States},
year = 2011,
month = 1
}
  • The primary objective of the study reported was to measure directly the attitudes toward rapid economic development held by members of the communities being impacted. Two areas selected for the study were Caribou County, Idaho, and Beaver County, Utah, contrasts in terms of economic structure and growth. In Beaver County, the population dropped from 5,014 in 1940 to 3,800 in 1970. The median income was only 78 percent of the state average. Its populace was dependent on agriculture and transportation (railroads); these industries have declined. In Caribou County, Idaho, the increase in population and income resulted from development of phosphatemore » deposits. Median income was 7 percent above the state level for 1970. Thus, the two areas provide a laboratory for assessing attitudes about economic development. Conclusions show that attitudes in the two west intermountain areas with significant difference in economic structure, growth, and welfare levels, are generally quite favorable toward proposals that would mean rapid economic and population growth. The attitudinal data are supportive of the growing body of research dealing with the responses of different subgroups of the American population toward environmental deterioration and economic growth. Generally, those most concerned about environmental deterioration are not economically insecure and may not need or want the increased benefits associated with industrial growth. (MCW)« less
  • The simple ATDL urban dispersion model is based on the formula chi/sub 0/(g/m/sup 3/) = CQ (g/m/sup 2/s)/U(m/s). The diurnal variation of the stability factor C, which can be thought of as the width of the urban area divided by the vertical dispersion of the pollution cloud, has not before been satisfactorily estimated. Using observed diurnal variations of CO concentrations and traffic frequencies reported by DeMarrais of the EPA for many stations in the states of Maryland, New Jersey, and Colorado, and using wind data from these states, hourly values of C = chi/sub 0/ U/Q were calculated. The ratiomore » of C to the daily average anti C is found to equal about 2.5 at 4 A.M., drops to about 0.5 by 9 A.M., and remains at 0.5 until about 6 P.M., when it starts to climb slowly again. Application of this new stability factor to independent CO data from Los Angeles yields correlations between measured and predicted concentrations of about 0.7.« less
  • The observed surface and upper air temperature and wind field patterns on 8 June 1976 in St. Louis, Missouri, were analyzed and compared with simulation results from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. An urban heat island (1--2/sup 0/C temperature difference between the urban and rural regions) persisted during the day. The daytime temperature differential was relatively weak compared to that at night (approx.5/sup 0/C difference). In contrast, the urban heat island circulation was more intense during the day. This is thought to be due to the heating being distributed through a deeper layer. In the early evening, the heat island circulationmore » dissipated due to the development of a surface-based inversion in the boundary layer.The highest concentrations of O/sub 3/ at the surface were found in the zone of convergence associated with the urban heat island circulation immediately downwind of the center of the city. As the heat island circulation dissipated during the early evening, the area of high O/sub 3/ concentration was displaced further downstream.« less
  • The diurnal variation of nitrous acid (HONO) was studied intermittently during 1 year in an urban area in southwestern Sweden by means of the sodium carbonate denuder technique. Predawn levels up to 4 ppb of HONO as 1-h averages were observed during high-pressure situations in the summer. Evaluation of the diurnal HONO profiles together with data on NO and NO/sub 2/ concentrations indicates that direct emissions from traffic exhaust and atmospheric reactions involving NO/sub 2/ are the most important sources of the observed HONO. The results are in good agreement with earlier findings. While during the daytime in the summermore » HONO levels were close to the detection limit, levels of several parts per billion sometimes occurred in the winter around noon, even on clear days. This is explained by a different meteorology and a reduced sunlight intensity in the winter. Estimated OH radical production rates after sunrise on clear days in Goeteborg during the summer occasionally reach 1 x 10/sup 7/ molecules cm/sup -3/ s/sup -1/.« less