Sample sizes for confidence limits for reliability.

Technical Report · Mon Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2010

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/972864· OSTI ID:972864

Darby, John L.

We recently performed an evaluation of the implications of a reduced stockpile of nuclear weapons for surveillance to support estimates of reliability. We found that one technique developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under-estimates the required sample size for systems-level testing. For a large population the discrepancy is not important, but for a small population it is important. We found that another technique used by SNL provides the correct required sample size. For systems-level testing of nuclear weapons, samples are selected without replacement, and the hypergeometric probability distribution applies. Both of the SNL techniques focus on samples without defects from sampling without replacement. We generalized the second SNL technique to cases with defects in the sample. We created a computer program in Mathematica to automate the calculation of confidence for reliability. We also evaluated sampling with replacement where the binomial probability distribution applies.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000
• OSTI ID: 972864
• Report Number(s): SAND2010-0550; TRN: US1001800
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
COMPUTER CODES
DEFECTS
DISTRIBUTION
EVALUATION
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PROBABILITY
RELIABILITY
SAMPLING
SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
STOCKPILES
TESTING
Nuclear weapon stockpile.-Reliability
Stockpiles.-Surveillance.