Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) Model: Documentation and Sample Results

Technical Report · Tue Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2009

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/967192· OSTI ID:967192

Denholm, P; Drury, E; Margolis, R

The Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) model is a bottom-up, market penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of photovoltaics (PV) on residential and commercial rooftops in the continental United States through 2030. NREL developed SolarDS to examine the market competitiveness of PV based on regional solar resources, capital costs, electricity prices, utility rate structures, and federal and local incentives. The model uses the projected financial performance of PV systems to simulate PV adoption for building types and regions then aggregates adoption to state and national levels. The main components of SolarDS include a PV performance simulator, a PV annual revenue calculator, a PV financial performance calculator, a PV market share calculator, and a regional aggregator. The model simulates a variety of installed PV capacity for a range of user-specified input parameters. PV market penetration levels from 15 to 193 GW by 2030 were simulated in preliminary model runs. SolarDS results are primarily driven by three model assumptions: (1) future PV cost reductions, (2) the maximum PV market share assumed for systems with given financial performance, and (3) PV financing parameters and policy-driven assumptions, such as the possible future cost of carbon emissions.

• Research Organization: National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC36-99-GO10337
• OSTI ID: 967192
• Report Number(s): NREL/TP-6A2-45832; TRN: US200923%%513
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
CAPACITY
CAPITALIZED COST
CARBON
COMPETITION
DOCUMENTATION
ELECTRICITY
FINANCING
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
PRICES
SOLARDS
PHOTOVOLTAICS
PV
PV CAPACITY
PV SYSTEMS
SOLAR DEPLOYMENT SYSTEM
MODEL RESULTS
MARKET MODEL
MARKET PENETRATION
MARKET COMPETITIVENESS
REGIONAL SOLAR RESOURCES
SOLAR CAPITAL COSTS
ELECTRICITY PRICES
UTILITY RATE STRUCTURES
FEDERAL INCENTIVES
LOCAL INCENTIVES
ANNUAL REVENUE
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE CALCULATOR
Energy Analysis