Modeling of Uncertainties in Major Drivers in U.S. Electricity Markets: Preprint

Conference · Fri Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2006

OSTI ID:891599

Short, W; Ferguson, T; Leifman, M

This paper presents information on the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) model. DOE and NREL are developing this new model, intended to address many of the shortcomings of the current suite of energy models. Once fully built, the salient qualities of SEDS will include full probabilistic treatment of the major uncertainties in national energy forecasts; code compactness for desktop application; user-friendly interface for a reasonably trained analyst; run-time within limits acceptable for quick-response analysis; choice of detailed or aggregate representations; and transparency of design, code, and assumptions. Moreover, SEDS development will be increasingly collaborative, as DOE and NREL will be coordinating with multiple national laboratories and other institutions, making SEDS nearly an 'open source' project. The collaboration will utilize the best expertise on specific sectors and problems, and also allow constant examination and review of the model. This paper outlines the rationale for this project and a description of its alpha version, as well as some example results. It also describes some of the expected development efforts in SEDS.

• Research Organization: National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC36-99-GO10337
• OSTI ID: 891599
• Report Number(s): NREL/CP-620-40451; TRN: US200622%%116
• Resource Relation: Conference: To be presented at the 26th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference; 24-27 September 2006; Ann Arbor, Michigan
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
DESIGN
ELECTRICITY
ENERGY MODELS
SIMULATION
STOCHASTIC ENERGY DEPLOYMENT SYSTEM MODEL
SEDS
ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK
INSTALLED CAPACITY
REGIONAL DISAGGREGATION
ELECTRIC SECTOR
UNCERTAINTY
GENERATING CAPACITY
Energy Analysis