The Outlook for U.S. Oil Dependence
Market share OPEC lost in defending higher prices from 1979-1985 is being steadily regained and is projected to exceed 50% by 2000. World oil markets are likely to be as vulnerable to monopoly influence as they were 20 years ago, as OPEC regains lost market share. The US economy appears to be as exposed as it was in the early 1970s to losses from monopoly oil pricing. A simulated 2-year supply reduction in 2005-6 boosts OPEC revenues by roughly half a trillion dollars and costs the US economy an approximately equal amount. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve appears to be of little benefit against such a determined, multi-year supply curtailment either in reducing OPEC revenues or protecting the US economy. Increasing the price elasticity of oil demand and supply in the US and the rest of the world, however, would be an effective strategy.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- OFFICE OF ENERGY DEMAND POLICY, DOE (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- OSTI ID:
- 814559
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL-6873; TRN: US200318%%49
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 1 Jan 1995
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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