Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. The NEMS Transportation Model comprises a series of semi-independent models which address different aspects of the transportation sector. The primary purpose of this model is to provide mid-term forecasts of transportation energy demand by fuel type including, but not limited to, motor gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and alternative fuels (such as CNG) not commonly associated with transportation. The current NEMS forecast horizon extends to the year 2010 and uses 1990 as the base year. Forecasts are generated through the separate consideration of energy consumption within the various modes of transport, including: private and fleet light-duty vehicles; aircraft; marine, rail, and truck freight; and various modes with minor overall impacts, such as mass transit and recreational boating. This approach is useful in assessing the impacts of policy initiatives, legislative mandates which affect individual modes of travel, and technological developments. The model also provides forecasts of selected intermediate values which are generated in order to determine energy consumption. These elements include estimates of passenger travel demand by automobile, air, or mass transit; estimates of the efficiency with which that demand is met; projections of vehicle stocks and the penetration of new technologies; and estimates of the demand for freight transport which are linked to forecasts of industrial output. Following the estimation of energy demand, TRAN produces forecasts of vehicular emissions of the following pollutants by source: oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, total carbon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 569039
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-M070/1(98); ON: DE98003278; NC: NONE; TRN: AHC29805%%60
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: Jan 1998
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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