Geothermal probabilistic cost model with an application to a geothermal reservoir at Heber, California

Technical Report · Tue Dec 15 00:00:00 EST 1981

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5349837· OSTI ID:5349837

Orren, L H; Ziman, G M; Jones, S C

A financial accounting model that incorporates physical and institutional uncertainties has been developed for geothermal projects. Among the uncertainties it can handle are well depth, flow rate, fluid temperature, and permit and construction times. The outputs of the model are cumulative probability distributions of financial measures such as capital cost, levelized cost, and profit. These outputs are well suited for use in an investment decision incorporating risk. The model has the powerful feature that conditional probability distribution can be used to account for correlations among any of the input variables. The model has been applied to a geothermal reservoir at Heber, California, for a 45-MW binary electric plant. Under the assumptions made, the reservoir appears to be economically viable.

• Research Organization: California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab. (JPL)
• DOE Contract Number: AI03-79ET37116
• OSTI ID: 5349837
• Report Number(s): DOE/ET/37116-1; JPL-PUB-81-117; ON: DE82011455
• Resource Relation: Other Information: Portions of document are illegible
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANTS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
BINARY-FLUID SYSTEMS
CAPITALIZED COST
COST
GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES
HEBER GEOTHERMAL FIELD
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
INVESTMENT
POWER RANGE 10-100 MW
PROBABILITY
PROFITS
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
ENERGY SYSTEMS
GEOTHERMAL FIELDS
POWER PLANTS
RESOURCES
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
Geothermal Legacy
150800* - Geothermal Power Plants