An overview of the IAEA Safety Series on procedures for evaluating the reliability of predictions made by environmental transfer models
The International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing a Safety Series publication on practical approaches for evaluating the reliability of the predictions made by environmental radiological assessment models. This publication identifies factors that affect the reliability of these predictions and discusses methods for quantifying uncertainty. Emphasis is placed on understanding the quantity of interest specified by the assessment question and distinguishing between stochastic variability and lack of knowledge about either the true value or the true distribution of values for quantity of interest. Among the many approaches discussed, model testing using independent data sets (model validation) is considered the best method for evaluating the accuracy in model predictions. Analytical and numerical methods for propagating the uncertainties in model parameters are presented and the strengths and weaknesses of model intercomparison exercises are also discussed. It is recognized that subjective judgment is employed throughout the entire modelling process, and quantitative reliability statements must be subjectively obtained when models are applied to different situations from those under which they have been tested. (6 refs.)
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA); Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit m.b.H. (GRS), Garching (Germany, F.R.)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 5233286
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-8710169-3; ON: DE88007174
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Workshop on methods for assessing the reliability of environmental transfer models predictions, Athens, Greece, 5 Oct 1987
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE
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DOSE EQUIVALENTS
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RELIABILITY
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
VALIDATION
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
TESTING
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