Techno-economic and risk evaluation of a thermal recovery project
Field production data were studied, to derive an overall energy balance for the steamflood, to calculate the steamflood capture efficiency and predict future steamflood performance. Heat-losses due to produced fluids were also calculated. Predicted production schedules from the model were history-matched with field production data The reservoir parameters (porosity, {phi}, net thickness, h{sub n}, initial oil saturation, S{sub oi}, and residual oil saturation, S{sub or}) were evaluated statistically using both Gaussian and triangular distributions. These resulted in distributed recovery predictions. The Gaussian distributions behaved as predicted; but of great importance, the skewed triangular distributions also behaved in much the same manner. The results fit closely with predictions using logical formulas to predict expected values, peak values and standard variations of recoveries. This result is important, for it indicates that complete Monte-Carlo simulations may not be necessary. All steamflood calculations were carried out using a PC-based spreadsheet program. The major results were as follows: The capture efficiency of the Wilmington steamflood was calculated at 60%. This is an acceptable value, taking into account the reservoir geometry and history. The calculated heat balance showed high heat-loss to adjacent formations and through produced fluids. Of the cumulative heat injected at the time of the study, 21% had been lost to vertical conduction and 21% through produced fluids. Predicted production schedules indicated that up to 43% of the oil in place (at steamflood initiation) could be recovered by the steamflood.
- Research Organization:
- Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Petroleum Engineering
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- FG22-96BC14994
- OSTI ID:
- 501562
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/BC/14994-2; ON: DE96001294; TRN: 97:004405
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: Jul 1997
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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