ARAC dispersion modeling support for January--March 1995 Vandenberg AFB launches
The Glory Trip (GT) 17-PA Peacekeeper launch originally scheduled at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) between 15 and 20 November 1994 was cancelled based on modeled toxic exhaust cloud calculations. The Missile Flight Control Branch, 30th Space Wing Safety Office (30 SW/SEY), made several successive ``No Go`` decisions using Version 7. 05 Rocket Exhaust Effluent Dispersion Model (REEDM) with forecasted meteorological conditions. REEDM runs made from T-14 hours to T-30 minutes predicted that ground-level concentrations of hydrogen chloride (HCl) gas from the catastrophic abort case would exceed 5 ppM, the ``instantaneous`` ambient air concentration ``Tier 2`` limit at that time, modeled as a peak 1-minute cloud centerline concentration. Depending on the forecasted wind direction and speed at launch time, this limit was predicted to be exceeded sometimes at Base Housing, approximately 10 km southeast of the launch, and during other launch windows at the town of Casmalia, about 5 km east- southeast. In late December 1994, the LLNL Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) program modeled the aborted November 1994 Peacekeeper launch and compared its results with REEDM. This initial comparison showed that the ARAC model predicted values about 1/3 as large as REEDM for the limiting case at Base Housing. Subsequently ARAC was asked to provide real-time modeling support to 30 SW/SEY during the rescheduled Peacekeeper GT 17-PA launch in January 1995 and two Minuteman launches in February and March. This report first briefly discusses the model differences and then summarizes the results of the three supported launches.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 97283
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-ID-121547; ON: DE95016613
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: May 1995
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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