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Title: The Boom of Electricity Demand in the Residential Sector in the Developing World and the Potential for Energy Efficiency

Abstract

With the emergence of China as the world's largest energy consumer, the awareness of developing country energy consumption has risen. According to common economic scenarios, the rest of the developing world will probably see an economic expansion as well. With this growth will surely come continued rapid growth in energy demand. This paper explores the dynamics of that demand growth for electricity in the residential sector and the realistic potential for coping with it through efficiency. In 2000, only 66% of developing world households had access to electricity. Appliance ownership rates remain low, but with better access to electricity and a higher income one can expect that households will see their electricity consumption rise significantly. This paper forecasts developing country appliance growth using econometric modeling. Products considered explicitly - refrigerators, air conditioners, lighting, washing machines, fans, televisions, stand-by power, water heating and space heating - represent the bulk of household electricity consumption in developing countries. The resulting diffusion model determines the trend and dynamics of demand growth at a level of detail not accessible by models of a more aggregate nature. In addition, the paper presents scenarios for reducing residential consumption through cost-effective and/or best practice efficiency measures defined atmore » the product level. The research takes advantage of an analytical framework developed by LBNL (BUENAS) which integrates end use technology parameters into demand forecasting and stock accounting to produce detailed efficiency scenarios, which allows for a realistic assessment of efficiency opportunities at the national or regional level. The past decades have seen some of the developing world moving towards a standard of living previously reserved for industrialized countries. Rapid economic development, combined with large populations has led to first China and now India to emerging as 'energy giants', a phenomenon that is expected to continue, accelerate and spread to other countries. This paper explores the potential for slowing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector in developing countries and evaluates the potential of energy savings and emissions mitigation through market transformation programs such as, but not limited to Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling (EES&L). The bottom-up methodology used allows one to identify which end uses and regions have the greatest potential for savings.« less

Authors:
;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
OSTI Identifier:
971503
Report Number(s):
LBNL-2329E
TRN: US201004%%182
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: ACEEE - American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy Summer Study
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29; AIR CONDITIONERS; APPLIANCES; DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; DIFFUSION; ECONOMETRICS; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ECONOMICS; ELECTRICITY; ENERGY CONSUMPTION; ENERGY DEMAND; ENERGY EFFICIENCY; ENERGY EFFICIENCY STANDARDS; GREENHOUSE GASES; HOUSEHOLDS; INCOME; MITIGATION; REFRIGERATORS; RESIDENTIAL SECTOR; SIMULATION; SPACE HEATING; STANDARD OF LIVING; TRANSFORMATIONS; WASHING; WATER HEATING

Citation Formats

Letschert, Virginie, and McNeil, Michael A. The Boom of Electricity Demand in the Residential Sector in the Developing World and the Potential for Energy Efficiency. United States: N. p., 2008. Web.
Letschert, Virginie, & McNeil, Michael A. The Boom of Electricity Demand in the Residential Sector in the Developing World and the Potential for Energy Efficiency. United States.
Letschert, Virginie, and McNeil, Michael A. 2008. "The Boom of Electricity Demand in the Residential Sector in the Developing World and the Potential for Energy Efficiency". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/971503.
@article{osti_971503,
title = {The Boom of Electricity Demand in the Residential Sector in the Developing World and the Potential for Energy Efficiency},
author = {Letschert, Virginie and McNeil, Michael A},
abstractNote = {With the emergence of China as the world's largest energy consumer, the awareness of developing country energy consumption has risen. According to common economic scenarios, the rest of the developing world will probably see an economic expansion as well. With this growth will surely come continued rapid growth in energy demand. This paper explores the dynamics of that demand growth for electricity in the residential sector and the realistic potential for coping with it through efficiency. In 2000, only 66% of developing world households had access to electricity. Appliance ownership rates remain low, but with better access to electricity and a higher income one can expect that households will see their electricity consumption rise significantly. This paper forecasts developing country appliance growth using econometric modeling. Products considered explicitly - refrigerators, air conditioners, lighting, washing machines, fans, televisions, stand-by power, water heating and space heating - represent the bulk of household electricity consumption in developing countries. The resulting diffusion model determines the trend and dynamics of demand growth at a level of detail not accessible by models of a more aggregate nature. In addition, the paper presents scenarios for reducing residential consumption through cost-effective and/or best practice efficiency measures defined at the product level. The research takes advantage of an analytical framework developed by LBNL (BUENAS) which integrates end use technology parameters into demand forecasting and stock accounting to produce detailed efficiency scenarios, which allows for a realistic assessment of efficiency opportunities at the national or regional level. The past decades have seen some of the developing world moving towards a standard of living previously reserved for industrialized countries. Rapid economic development, combined with large populations has led to first China and now India to emerging as 'energy giants', a phenomenon that is expected to continue, accelerate and spread to other countries. This paper explores the potential for slowing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector in developing countries and evaluates the potential of energy savings and emissions mitigation through market transformation programs such as, but not limited to Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling (EES&L). The bottom-up methodology used allows one to identify which end uses and regions have the greatest potential for savings.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/971503}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue May 13 00:00:00 EDT 2008},
month = {Tue May 13 00:00:00 EDT 2008}
}

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