Illustrating the future prediction of performance based on computer code, physical experiments, and critical performance parameter samples

Journal Article · Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2009 · Quality Engineering

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/08982110903167809· OSTI ID:956548

Hamada, Michael S ^[1]; Higdon, David M ^[1]

---

1. Los Alamos National Laboratory

In this paper, we present a generic example to illustrate various points about making future predictions of population performance using a biased performance computer code, physical performance data, and critical performance parameter data sampled from the population at various times. We show how the actual performance data help to correct the biased computer code and the impact of uncertainty especially when the prediction is made far from where the available data are taken. We also demonstrate how a Bayesian approach allows both inferences about the unknown parameters and predictions to be made in a consistent framework.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC52-06NA25396
• OSTI ID: 956548
• Report Number(s): LA-UR-09-00419; LA-UR-09-419; ISSN 1532-4222; TRN: US201014%%1917
• Journal Information: Quality Engineering, Vol. 21, Issue 4; ISSN 0898-2112
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
COMPUTER CODES
DATA
FORECASTING
PERFORMANCE
POPULATIONS