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Title: Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

Abstract

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economicmore » effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. SAIC
  2. MISI
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, Morgantown, WV, and Albany, OR
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE - Office of Fossil Energy (FE)
OSTI Identifier:
939271
Report Number(s):
DOE/NETL-IR-2005-093; NETL-TPR-2319
TRN: US200823%%350
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AM26-99FT40575 Task 21006W and Subcontract Agreement 7010001197
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Related Information: Also available at http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
02 PETROLEUM; ECONOMIC IMPACT; ECONOMICS; FORECASTING; LIQUID FUELS; MANAGEMENT; MITIGATION; PRICES; PRODUCTION; SUPPLY AND DEMAND; VOLATILITY; oil production; oil peaking

Citation Formats

Hirsch, R L, Bezdek, Roger, and Wendling, Robert. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management. United States: N. p., 2005. Web. doi:10.2172/939271.
Hirsch, R L, Bezdek, Roger, & Wendling, Robert. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/939271
Hirsch, R L, Bezdek, Roger, and Wendling, Robert. 2005. "Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/939271. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/939271.
@article{osti_939271,
title = {Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management},
author = {Hirsch, R L and Bezdek, Roger and Wendling, Robert},
abstractNote = {The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.},
doi = {10.2172/939271},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/939271}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2005},
month = {Tue Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2005}
}