Errors and Uncertainties in Dose Reconstruction for Radiation Effects Research
Dose reconstruction for studies of the health effects of ionizing radiation have been carried out for many decades. Major studies have included Japanese bomb survivors, atomic veterans, downwinders of the Nevada Test Site and Hanford, underground uranium miners, and populations of nuclear workers. For such studies to be credible, significant effort must be put into applying the best science to reconstructing unbiased absorbed doses to tissues and organs as a function of time. In many cases, more and more sophisticated dose reconstruction methods have been developed as studies progressed. For the example of the Japanese bomb survivors, the dose surrogate “distance from the hypocenter” was replaced by slant range, and then by TD65 doses, DS86 doses, and more recently DS02 doses. Over the years, it has become increasingly clear that an equal level of effort must be expended on the quantitative assessment of uncertainty in such doses, and to reducing and managing uncertainty. In this context, this paper reviews difficulties in terminology, explores the nature of Berkson and classical uncertainties in dose reconstruction through examples, and proposes a path forward for Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER) Project 2.4 that requires a reasonably small level of effort for DOSES-2008.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 935615
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-17465; HU2006300; TRN: US0804660
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
BOMBS
IONIZING RADIATIONS
MINERS
NEVADA TEST SITE
ORGANS
RADIATION DOSES
RADIATION EFFECTS
URANIUM
uncertainty
error
variability
dosimetry
dose reconstruction
epidemiology
ionizing radiation
Mayak Production Association
Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER)
plutonium
medical x-rays
gamma radiation
beta radiation
neutron radiation
lognormal distribution
Berkson errors
classical errors
shared uncertainty