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Title: Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

Abstract

This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.

Authors:
; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
919658
Report Number(s):
SAND2004-4745
TRN: US200825%%263
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE; SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS; POLITICAL ASPECTS; WARFARE; GAME THEORY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; ECONOMETRICS; Conflict management.; Conflict (Psychology); Culture conflict.; Data modeling.

Citation Formats

Rexroth, Paul E, Malczynski, Leonard A, Hendrickson, Gerald A, Kobos, Peter Holmes, and McNamara, Laura A. Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.. United States: N. p., 2004. Web. doi:10.2172/919658.
Rexroth, Paul E, Malczynski, Leonard A, Hendrickson, Gerald A, Kobos, Peter Holmes, & McNamara, Laura A. Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/919658
Rexroth, Paul E, Malczynski, Leonard A, Hendrickson, Gerald A, Kobos, Peter Holmes, and McNamara, Laura A. 2004. "Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/919658. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/919658.
@article{osti_919658,
title = {Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.},
author = {Rexroth, Paul E and Malczynski, Leonard A and Hendrickson, Gerald A and Kobos, Peter Holmes and McNamara, Laura A},
abstractNote = {This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.},
doi = {10.2172/919658},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/919658}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2004},
month = {Wed Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2004}
}