Analysis of Infiltration Uncertainty
The primary objectives of this uncertainty analysis are: (1) to develop and justify a set of uncertain parameters along with associated distributions; and (2) to use the developed uncertain parameter distributions and the results from selected analog site calculations done in ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Modern and Potential Future Climates'' (USGS 2001 [160355]) to obtain the net infiltration weighting factors for the glacial transition climate. These weighting factors are applied to unsaturated zone (UZ) flow fields in Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA), as outlined in the ''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application Methods and Approach'' (BSC 2002 [160146], Section 3.1) as a method for the treatment of uncertainty. This report is a scientific analysis because no new and mathematical physical models are developed herein, and it is based on the use of the models developed in or for ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Modern and Potential Future Climates'' (USGS 2001 [160355]). Any use of the term model refers to those developed in the infiltration numerical model report. TSPA License Application (LA) has included three distinct climate regimes in the comprehensive repository performance analysis for Yucca Mountain: present-day, monsoon, and glacial transition. Each climate regime was characterized using three infiltration-rate maps, including a lower- and upper-bound and a mean value (equal to the average of the two boundary values). For each of these maps, which were obtained based on analog site climate data, a spatially averaged value was also calculated by the USGS. For a more detailed discussion of these infiltration-rate maps, see ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Modern and Potential Future Climates'' (USGS 2001 [160355]). For this Scientific Analysis Report, spatially averaged values were calculated for the lower-bound, mean, and upper-bound climate analogs only for the glacial transition climate regime, within the simulated multi-rectangular region approximating the repository footprint, shown in Figure 1-1. (For brevity, these maps will be referred to as the analog maps, and the corresponding averaged net infiltration values as the analog values.)
- Research Organization:
- Yucca Mountain Project, Las Vegas, NV (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- OSTI ID:
- 836530
- Report Number(s):
- ANL-NBS-HS-000027, Rev. 01; DOC.20031030.0003, DC No. 35638; TRN: US0500717
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 27 Oct 2003
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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