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Title: Effect of Flux Adjustments on Temperature Variability in Climate Models

Abstract

It has been suggested that ''flux adjustments'' in climate models suppress simulated temperature variability. If true, this might invalidate the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases since 1860 are anthropogenic, since this conclusion is based in part on estimates of natural temperature variability derived from flux-adjusted models. We assess variability of surface air temperatures in 17 simulations of internal temperature variability submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By comparing variability in flux-adjusted vs. non-flux adjusted simulations, we find no evidence that flux adjustments suppress temperature variability in climate models; other, largely unknown, factors are much more important in determining simulated temperature variability. Therefore the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases are anthropogenic cannot be questioned on the grounds that it is based in part on results of flux-adjusted models. Also, reducing or eliminating flux adjustments would probably do little to improve simulations of temperature variability.

Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Defense Programs (DP) (US)
OSTI Identifier:
791406
Report Number(s):
UCRL-JC-134153
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; TRN: US200206%%37
DOE Contract Number:  
W-7405-Eng-48
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Journal Volume: 27; Journal Issue: 6; Conference: American Geophysical Union 2000 Sciences Meeting, San Antonio, TX (US), 01/24/2000--01/28/2000; Other Information: PBD: 27 Dec 1999
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATE MODELS; SURFACE AIR; TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION; AMBIENT TEMPERATURE; CLIMATIC CHANGE

Citation Formats

Duffy, P, Bell, J, Covey, C, and Sloan, L. Effect of Flux Adjustments on Temperature Variability in Climate Models. United States: N. p., 1999. Web. doi:10.1029/1999GL002390.
Duffy, P, Bell, J, Covey, C, & Sloan, L. Effect of Flux Adjustments on Temperature Variability in Climate Models. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL002390
Duffy, P, Bell, J, Covey, C, and Sloan, L. 1999. "Effect of Flux Adjustments on Temperature Variability in Climate Models". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL002390. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/791406.
@article{osti_791406,
title = {Effect of Flux Adjustments on Temperature Variability in Climate Models},
author = {Duffy, P and Bell, J and Covey, C and Sloan, L},
abstractNote = {It has been suggested that ''flux adjustments'' in climate models suppress simulated temperature variability. If true, this might invalidate the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases since 1860 are anthropogenic, since this conclusion is based in part on estimates of natural temperature variability derived from flux-adjusted models. We assess variability of surface air temperatures in 17 simulations of internal temperature variability submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By comparing variability in flux-adjusted vs. non-flux adjusted simulations, we find no evidence that flux adjustments suppress temperature variability in climate models; other, largely unknown, factors are much more important in determining simulated temperature variability. Therefore the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases are anthropogenic cannot be questioned on the grounds that it is based in part on results of flux-adjusted models. Also, reducing or eliminating flux adjustments would probably do little to improve simulations of temperature variability.},
doi = {10.1029/1999GL002390},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/791406}, journal = {},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 6,
volume = 27,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Dec 27 00:00:00 EST 1999},
month = {Mon Dec 27 00:00:00 EST 1999}
}

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Works referenced in this record:

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Competing Roles of Heat and Freshwater Flux in Forcing Thermohaline Oscillations
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Marine surface temperature: Observed variations and data requirements
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