Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation Project
This report presents results of the Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation (SZEE) project for Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (referred to as the YMP) is intended to evaluate the suitability of the site for construction of a mined geologic repository for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The SZEE project is one of several that involve the elicitation of experts to characterize the knowledge and uncertainties regarding key inputs to the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). The objective of the current project was to characterize the uncertainties associated with certain key issues related to the saturated zone system in the Yucca Mountain area and downgradient region. An understanding of saturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the saturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent the physical processes controlling saturated zone flow and transport, and the parameter values used in the models. So that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and uncertainties about key issues regarding the saturated zone at the Yucca Mountain site.
- Research Organization:
- Yucca Mountain Project, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC08-91RW00134
- OSTI ID:
- 763124
- Report Number(s):
- MOL.19990429.0136; TRN: US0101020
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 1 Jan 1998
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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