Characterization of subjective uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191,40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of subjective uncertainty is discussed, including assignment of distributions, uncertain variables selected for inclusion in analysis, correlation control, sample size, statistical confidence on mean complementary cumulative distribution functions, generation of Latin hypercube samples, sensitivity analysis techniques, and scenarios involving stochastic and subjective uncertainty.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 755473
- Report Number(s):
- SAND99-1883J; TRN: US0003606
- Journal Information:
- Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue), Other Information: Submitted to Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue); PBD: 18 May 2000
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
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Related Subjects
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
WIPP
PERFORMANCE
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
DATA COVARIANCES
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
RADIATION ACCIDENTS
ALEATORY UNCERTAINTY
COMPLEMENTARY CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
COMPLIANCE CERTIFICATION APPLICATION
EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY
LATIN HYPERCUBE SAMPLING
PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
RADIOACTIVE WASTE
SCENARIO
STOCHASTIC UNCERTAINTY
SUBJECTIVE UNCERTAINTY
TRANSURANIC WASTE
WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT
40 CFR 191
40 CFR 194