Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Journal Article · Fri May 19 00:00:00 EDT 2000 · Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue)

OSTI ID:755472

HELTON, JON CRAIG; DAVIS, FREDDIE J; JOHNSON, J D

The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: US Department of Energy (US)
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000
• OSTI ID: 755472
• Report Number(s): SAND99-1882J; TRN: US0003605
• Journal Information: Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue), Other Information: Submitted to Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue); PBD: 19 May 2000
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
WIPP
PERFORMANCE
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
RADIATION ACCIDENTS
DATA COVARIANCES
HUMAN INTRUSION
WELL DRILLING
WATER INFLUX
RISK ASSESSMENT
ALEATORY UNCERTAINTY
COMPLEMENTARY CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
COMPLIANCE CERTIFICATION APPLICATION
EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY
LATIN HYPERCUBE SAMPLING
PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
RADIOACTIVE WASTE
RANDOM SAMPLING
SCENARIO
STOCHASTIC UNCERTAINTY
SUBJECTIVE UNCERTAINTY
TRANSURANIC WASTE
WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT
40 CFR 191
40 CFR 194