Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates
Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today's climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling.
- Research Organization:
- Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE; USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- FG02-85ER60304
- OSTI ID:
- 7160388
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/ER/60304-8; ON: DE93000893
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates
Model validation research: Comparison of simulated and observed climate patterns for the past 18,000 years: Progress report for the period February 1, 1987 to January 31, 1988