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Title: Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

Abstract

Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
6977104
Report Number(s):
PNL-6082
ON: DE87004203
DOE Contract Number:  
AC06-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: Portions of this document are illegible in microfiche products. Original copy available until stock is exhausted
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; ENERGY POLICY; FORECASTING; PROBABILITY; SIMULATION; US DOE; GOVERNMENT POLICIES; NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS; US ORGANIZATIONS; 293000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Policy, Legislation, & Regulation

Citation Formats

Roop, J M, Scheer, R M, and Stacey, G S. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications. United States: N. p., 1986. Web. doi:10.2172/6977104.
Roop, J M, Scheer, R M, & Stacey, G S. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/6977104
Roop, J M, Scheer, R M, and Stacey, G S. 1986. "Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/6977104. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/6977104.
@article{osti_6977104,
title = {Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications},
author = {Roop, J M and Scheer, R M and Stacey, G S},
abstractNote = {Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.},
doi = {10.2172/6977104},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6977104}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 1986},
month = {Mon Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 1986}
}