Impacts of oil disturbances: lessons from experience. [1973-1974 Oil Crisis; 1978-1979 Iranian Revolution; 1980-1981 Iran-Iraq War]
An analysis of the impacts of previous oil distrubances can be used to suggest the impacts of future oil disturbances. This paper reviews how the 1973-1974 Oil Crisis, the 1978-1979 Iranian Revolution, and the 1980-1981 Iran-Iraq War impacted the US and world oil markets. Various measures of impacts are considered, such as impacts on physical flows of crude and products, crude and product price changes on the US and world markets, impacts on stocks of crude and products, and impacts on refiners' inputs and outputs. Various macroeconomic indicators, such as gross national product, inflation rates, and unemployment, are also considered. Of particular interest in this study are the impacts that oil disturbances have had (and could have) on the availabilities of particular crude types and the abilities of US refiners to process crudes of various types in the short run. In addition, this paper reviews how the actions of the consuming countries and the major oil companies affected the impacts of past disturbances. The paper briefly discusses the likely causes and impacts of future oil distrubances and summarizes the lessons to be learned from past reactions to oil disturbances.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-26
- OSTI ID:
- 6797043
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL/TM-8492; ON: DE83005977
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Portions are illegible in microfiche products. Original copy available until stock is exhausted
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
PETROLEUM
SUPPLY DISRUPTION
ECONOMIC IMPACT
AVAILABILITY
EMPLOYMENT
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
INFLATION
MARKET
PETROLEUM REFINERIES
PRICES
STOCKPILES
USA
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS
NORTH AMERICA
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