Survey review of models for use in market penetration analysis: utility sector focus
The ultimate benefits of federal expenditures in research and development for new technologies are dependent upon the degree of acceptance of these technologies. Market penetration considerations are central to the problem of quantifying the potential benefits. These benefits are inputs to the selection process of projects competing for finite R and D funds. Market penetration is the gradual acceptance of a new commodity or technology. The Office of Coal utilization is concerned with the specialized area of market penetration of new electric power generation technologies for both replacement and new capacity. The common measure of market penetration is the fraction of the market serviced by the challenging technology for each time point considered. The methodologies for estimating market penetration are divided into three generic classes: integrated energy/economy modeling systems, utility capacity expansion models, and technology substitution models. In general, the integrated energy/economy modeling systems have three advantages: they provide internally consistent macro, energy-economy scenarios, they account for the effect of prices on demand by fuel form, and they explicitly capture the effects of population growth and the level and structure of economic activity on energy demand. A variety of deficiencies appear in most energy-economy systems models. All of the methodologies may be applied at some level to questions of market penetration of new technologies in the utility sector; choice of methods for a particular analysis must be conditioned by the scope of the analysis, data availability, and the relative cost of alternative analysis.
- Research Organization:
- Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC02-76CH00016
- OSTI ID:
- 6705657
- Report Number(s):
- BNL-51215
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies
Related Subjects
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
MARKETING RESEARCH
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
AVAILABILITY
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
COST
ENERGY DEMAND
FINANCING
FUELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
MARKET
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
US DOE
DEMAND
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
PUBLIC UTILITIES
US ORGANIZATIONS
296000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Electric Power
290100 - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Analysis & Modeling