Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

Technical Report · Mon Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 1985

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/6299241· OSTI ID:6299241

Evans, J S; Moeller, D W; Cooper, D W

Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

• Research Organization: Harvard Univ., Boston, MA (USA). School of Public Health
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-76DP00789
• OSTI ID: 6299241
• Report Number(s): NUREG/CR-4214; SAND-85-7185; ON: TI85017968
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
DISEASE INCIDENCE
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
GENETIC RADIATION EFFECTS
MORTALITY
RADIATION ACCIDENTS
HEALTH HAZARDS
DOSE RATES
DOSE-RESPONSE RELATIONSHIPS
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RISK ASSESSMENT
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NUCLEAR FACILITIES
POWER PLANTS
RADIATION EFFECTS
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
560151* - Radiation Effects on Animals- Man