Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates
Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. As one index of the magnitude of past climates change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide doubling. Simulating the climate changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the NCAR CCMO (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0), after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our comparisons have shown both some of the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The research so far has shown the feasibility of our methods for comparing paleoclimatic data and model results. Our research has also shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1991, we have continued our studies and this Progress Report documents the results to date. During this year, we have completed new modeling experiments, compiled new data sets, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling. 37 refs.
- Research Organization:
- Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE; USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- FG02-85ER60304
- OSTI ID:
- 5981400
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/ER/60304-6; ON: DE92002820
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates
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Related Subjects
58 GEOSCIENCES
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
CLIMATE MODELS
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
CLIMATES
HISTORICAL ASPECTS
DATA ANALYSIS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
OCEANIC CIRCULATION
PLANTS
PROGRESS REPORT
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
DOCUMENT TYPES
EVALUATION
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
540120* - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (1990-)
580000 - Geosciences
990200 - Mathematics & Computers