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Title: Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected meteorological models and parameters. [CRAC2]

Abstract

We have studied the sensitivity of results from the CRAC2 computer code, which predicts health impacts from a reactor-accident scenario, to uncertainties in selected meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty examined include the models for plume rise and wet deposition and the meteorological bin-sampling procedure. An alternative plume-rise model usually had little effect on predicted health impacts. In an alternative wet-deposition model, the scavenging rate depends only on storm type, rather than on rainfall rate and atmospheric stability class as in the CRAC2 model. Use of the alternative wet-deposition model in meteorological bin-sampling runs decreased predicted mean early injuries by as much as a factor of 2-3 and, for large release heights and sensible heat rates, decreased mean early fatalities by nearly an order of magnitude. The bin-sampling procedure in CRAC2 was expanded by dividing each rain bin into four bins that depend on rainfall rate. Use of the modified bin structure in conjunction with the CRAC2 wet-deposition model changed all predicted health impacts by less than a factor of 2. 9 references.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Oak Ridge, TN (USA). Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Lab.
OSTI Identifier:
5977584
Report Number(s):
CONF-850206-25-Summ.
ON: TI85007573
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-84OR21400
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: International ANS/ENS topical meeting on probabilistic safety methods and applications, San Francisco, CA, USA, 24 Feb 1985
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.; 22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS; RADIOACTIVE AEROSOLS; WASHOUT; REACTOR ACCIDENTS; RADIATION HAZARDS; DIFFUSION; EARTH ATMOSPHERE; FALLOUT; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; METEOROLOGY; PRECIPITATION SCAVENGING; PUBLIC HEALTH; RADIOACTIVE CLOUDS; RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION; VALIDATION; WIND; ACCIDENTS; AEROSOLS; CLOUDS; COLLOIDS; DISPERSIONS; ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT; HAZARDS; HEALTH HAZARDS; MASS TRANSFER; SEPARATION PROCESSES; SOLS; TESTING; 500300* - Environment, Atmospheric- Radioactive Materials Monitoring & Transport- (-1989); 560151 - Radiation Effects on Animals- Man; 220900 - Nuclear Reactor Technology- Reactor Safety

Citation Formats

Ward, R C, Kocher, D C, Hicks, B B, Hosker, Jr, R P, Ku, J Y, and Rao, K S. Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected meteorological models and parameters. [CRAC2]. United States: N. p., 1985. Web.
Ward, R C, Kocher, D C, Hicks, B B, Hosker, Jr, R P, Ku, J Y, & Rao, K S. Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected meteorological models and parameters. [CRAC2]. United States.
Ward, R C, Kocher, D C, Hicks, B B, Hosker, Jr, R P, Ku, J Y, and Rao, K S. 1985. "Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected meteorological models and parameters. [CRAC2]". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5977584.
@article{osti_5977584,
title = {Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected meteorological models and parameters. [CRAC2]},
author = {Ward, R C and Kocher, D C and Hicks, B B and Hosker, Jr, R P and Ku, J Y and Rao, K S},
abstractNote = {We have studied the sensitivity of results from the CRAC2 computer code, which predicts health impacts from a reactor-accident scenario, to uncertainties in selected meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty examined include the models for plume rise and wet deposition and the meteorological bin-sampling procedure. An alternative plume-rise model usually had little effect on predicted health impacts. In an alternative wet-deposition model, the scavenging rate depends only on storm type, rather than on rainfall rate and atmospheric stability class as in the CRAC2 model. Use of the alternative wet-deposition model in meteorological bin-sampling runs decreased predicted mean early injuries by as much as a factor of 2-3 and, for large release heights and sensible heat rates, decreased mean early fatalities by nearly an order of magnitude. The bin-sampling procedure in CRAC2 was expanded by dividing each rain bin into four bins that depend on rainfall rate. Use of the modified bin structure in conjunction with the CRAC2 wet-deposition model changed all predicted health impacts by less than a factor of 2. 9 references.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5977584}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1985},
month = {Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1985}
}

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