HFCs contribution to the greenhouse effect. Present and projected estimations
Abstract
This paper reviews data that can be used to calculate hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) contribution to the greenhouse effect and compare it to other trace gas contributions. Projections are made for 2010 and 2100 on the basis of available emission scenarios. Industrial judgement on the likelihood of those scenarios is also developed. Calculations can be made in two different ways: from Global Warming Potential weighted emissions of species or by direct calculation of radiative forcing based on measured and projected atmospheric concentrations of compounds. Results show that HFCs corresponding to commercial uses have a negligible contribution to the greenhouse effect in comparison with other trace gases. The projected contributions are also very small even if very high emission scenarios are maintained for decades. In 2010 this contribution remains below 1%. Longer term emissions projections are difficult. However, based on the IPCC scenario IS92a, in spite of huge emissions projected for the year 2100, the HFC contribution remains below 3%. Actually many factors indicate that the real UFC contribution to the greenhouse effect will be even smaller than presented here. Low emissive systems and small charges will likely improve sharply in the future and have drastically improved in the recent past. HFC technologymore »
- Authors:
-
- Central Research & Development, Paris (France)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- International Climate Change Partnership, Arlington, VA (United States)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 577054
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-970687-PROC.
ON: DE98003129; TRN: 98:001159-0016
- Resource Type:
- Conference
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: International climate change conference and technologies exhibition, Baltimore, MD (United States), 12-13 Jun 1997; Other Information: PBD: [1997]; Related Information: Is Part Of Incorporating climate change into corporate business strategies. Conference proceedings; PB: 195 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; HYDROFLUORIC ACID; CARBON COMPOUNDS; REFRIGERANTS; GREENHOUSE GASES; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
Citation Formats
Libre, J M, and Elf-Atochem, S A. HFCs contribution to the greenhouse effect. Present and projected estimations. United States: N. p., 1997.
Web.
Libre, J M, & Elf-Atochem, S A. HFCs contribution to the greenhouse effect. Present and projected estimations. United States.
Libre, J M, and Elf-Atochem, S A. 1997.
"HFCs contribution to the greenhouse effect. Present and projected estimations". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/577054.
@article{osti_577054,
title = {HFCs contribution to the greenhouse effect. Present and projected estimations},
author = {Libre, J M and Elf-Atochem, S A},
abstractNote = {This paper reviews data that can be used to calculate hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) contribution to the greenhouse effect and compare it to other trace gas contributions. Projections are made for 2010 and 2100 on the basis of available emission scenarios. Industrial judgement on the likelihood of those scenarios is also developed. Calculations can be made in two different ways: from Global Warming Potential weighted emissions of species or by direct calculation of radiative forcing based on measured and projected atmospheric concentrations of compounds. Results show that HFCs corresponding to commercial uses have a negligible contribution to the greenhouse effect in comparison with other trace gases. The projected contributions are also very small even if very high emission scenarios are maintained for decades. In 2010 this contribution remains below 1%. Longer term emissions projections are difficult. However, based on the IPCC scenario IS92a, in spite of huge emissions projected for the year 2100, the HFC contribution remains below 3%. Actually many factors indicate that the real UFC contribution to the greenhouse effect will be even smaller than presented here. Low emissive systems and small charges will likely improve sharply in the future and have drastically improved in the recent past. HFC technology implementation is likely to grow in the future, reach a maximum before the middle of the next century; the market will stabilise driven by recycling, closing of systems and competitive technologies. This hypothesis is supported by previous analysis of the demand for HTCs type applications which can be represented by {open_quotes}S{close_quotes} type curves and by recent analysis indicating that the level of substitution of old products by HFCs is growing slowly. On the basis of those data and best industrial judgement, the contribution of HFCs to the greenhouse effect is highly likely to remain below 1% during the next century. 11 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/577054},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Dec 31 00:00:00 EST 1997},
month = {Wed Dec 31 00:00:00 EST 1997}
}