Market penetration of electric passenger vehicles

Technical Report · Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1983

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5730299· OSTI ID:5730299

Froker, D.

The assumptions and criteria used to estimate the cost, performance and comfort of electric vehicles (EV) and to compare these aspects of internal combustion vehicles and EVs are explained, and the method used to forecast the market share of EVs for future personal transportation needs is described. The results forecast an approximate total market share of EVs sold in the passenger vehicle market to be 10% for 1990 and 20% for the year 2000. The sensitivity analysis disclosed that the parameters mainly responsible for changes of EV market share were range, purchase price, year purchased, and to some extent, the maximum cruising speed, in order of importance. Surprisingly, fuel prices, whether for electricity or gasoline, did not have much effect on market share even when considering much greater increases than we have seen in the past 10 years. As might be expected with fuel prices having negligible effects, changes in the efficiencies of EVs and ICVs also altered our expected market share very little. (LCL)

• Research Organization: Stanford Univ., CA (USA). Dept. of Engineering-Economic Systems
• DOE Contract Number: FG03-77CS40006
• OSTI ID: 5730299
• Report Number(s): DOE/CS/40006-T1; ON: DE81029496
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS
ELECTRIC-POWERED VEHICLES
MARKET
AUTOMOBILES
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
COST
FORECASTING
INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
PERFORMANCE
POWER DEMAND
USA
ENGINES
HEAT ENGINES
NORTH AMERICA
VEHICLES
330300* - Advanced Propulsion Systems- Electric-Powered Systems
330100 - Internal Combustion Engines