Projected global health impacts from severe nuclear accidents: Conversion of projected doses to risks on a global scale: Experience from Chernobyl releases
Best estimates of possible additional health effects were projected for the Northern Hemisphere: (1) over the next 50 years, up to 28 thousand radiation-induced fatal cancers, compared to an expected 600 million cancer deaths from natural or spontaneous causes; (2) over the next year, up to 700 additional cases of severe mental retardation, compared to a normal expectation of 340 thousand cases; and (3) in the first generation, up to 1.9 thousand radiation-induced genetic disorders, compared to 180 million naturally-occurring cases. The possibility of zero health effects at very low doses and dose rates cannot be excluded. Due to the very large numbers of naturally-occurring health effects, it is unlikely that any additional health effects will be demonstrable except, perhaps, for the more highly exposed population in the immediate vicinity of Chernobyl. 13 refs., 4 figs., 6 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (US); California Univ., Davis (US); Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore, CA (US)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 5720088
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-96542; CONF-870911-2; IAEA-CN-48/273; TRN: US0302920
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: International conference on the technical and economic performance of nuclear power, Vienna (AT), 09/28/1987--10/02/1987; Other Information: PBD: 1 Jan 1987
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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