Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists
The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.
- Research Organization:
- Analytic and Computational Research, Inc., Los Angeles, CA (USA); Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, CA (USA); Rockwell International Corp., Richland, WA (United States). Rockwell Hanford Operations
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC06-77RL01030
- OSTI ID:
- 5563618
- Report Number(s):
- RHO-BW-CR-145P; ON: DE85014846
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Portions of this document are illegible in microfiche products. Original copy available until stock is exhausted
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists
Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt: Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three Basalt Waste Isolation Project staff hydrologists
Related Subjects
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
BASALT
HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY
POROSITY
ANISOTROPY
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN
HANFORD RESERVATION
HYDROLOGY
PROBABILITY
IGNEOUS ROCKS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
ROCKS
US DOE
US ERDA
US ORGANIZATIONS
VOLCANIC ROCKS
580100* - Geology & Hydrology- (-1989)
052002 - Nuclear Fuels- Waste Disposal & Storage