Uncertainty in site inspection and tracking database estimates of savings
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)
The authors systematically analyze impact evaluation results of three commercial lighting rebate DSM programs. The research includes (1) analysis of ex ante and ex post estimates of program performance, broken down into critical program parameters: hours of operation, watts saved per measure, and measures installed per site; (2) construction of probability distributions of program performance, both in the aggregate and for these critical program parameters; and (3) use of these analyses and distributions to draw conclusions about the accuracy of savings estimates from a variety of evaluation methods. The analysis suggests that realization rates (a ratio of metered savings estimates to tracking database savings estimates) for the sample of participants they examine are subject to tremendous variability, calling into question the usefulness of a point estimate of the realization rate. Discrepancies in estimates of hours of operation are responsible for most of the uncertainty in the realization rate. Finally, the impact of shorter measure lifetimes on savings estimates suggest that persistence studies should be an evaluation priority.
- Research Organization:
- Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Research, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- FG02-93ER61711
- OSTI ID:
- 353391
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-8808273-1; ON: DE99002136; TRN: AHC29923%%224
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: ACEEE summer study on energy efficiency in buildings, Asilomar, CA (United States), 29 Aug - 1 Sep 1988; Other Information: PBD: [1988]
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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